lunedì, Giugno 24, 2024


Diario geostrategico,  22 ottobre 2021

Buona lettura ! 

The Science of Where Magazine’s interviews:

– L’intelligenza artificiale contro le discriminazioni sul lavoro. The Science of Where Magazine incontra Keith Sonderling, Commissioner del U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission

– Per Italia e Germania, il futuro è nelle nuove tecnologie. Intervista esclusiva con l’Ambasciatore d’Italia a Berlino, Armando Varricchio

– Gathering strenght, gathering storms. Visions on artificial intelligence. The Science of Where Magazine meets Michael Littman and Peter Stone

Today’s Choice:

– Stefano Sartorio writes for Agenda Digitale: Il mercato dei semiconduttori è molto interconnesso e trasversale e tocca gli interessi di decine di Paesi: per questo è al centro delle strategie geopolitiche mondiali. Gli Usa e la Ue sembrano pronti a collaborare per contrastare la corazzata asiatica, ma non tutti sono d’accordo su questa strategia – Semiconduttori, Usa e Ue a confronto: scenari e frizioni di un Risiko sempre più complesso


– Bronwyn Howell writes for American Enterprise Institute: In February, Australia led the world with its competition-based law requiring Facebook and Google to reach a compensation agreement with media firms regarding the use of copyrighted news material on social media. While the ensuing stoush resulted in Facebook “de-friending” Australia for a day — along with acrimonious bargaining in the public domain as Australia’s media giants faced off with the online behemoths — agreements that “de-fanged” the issue were ultimately reached. While the level of payments remains mostly undisclosed, major news media firms such as Seven West Media (covering 21 publications) and News Corp (which owns numerous publications along with multimedia platforms and Sky News Australia) quickly came to terms with Facebook and Google that satisfied the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (the regulatory body at hand) – Australia stands alone again in social media content rulings


– Ye Xue writes for The Interpreter: China has singled out several Australian industries with economic sanctions since May last year, imposing hefty tariffs on Australian barley and wine exports, while throwing up barriers to other products including timber, lobster and coal. Beijing’s action has largely been seen as a response to Canberra’s calls for an independent investigation into the origins of Covid-19 – China’s economic sanctions made Australia more confident

Cyber Security:

– Sabatina De Fusco and Giorgio Iorio writes for Agenda Digitale: Il fenomeno del furto dei dati online è aumentato drasticamente nell’ultimo decennio. Ma cosa succede quanto i dati rubati vengono resi pubblici e utilizzati per la ricerca scientifica? Approfondiamo le implicazioni etiche e morali legate a questa eventualità, e ciò che scienziati e ricercatori possono fare per proteggere i soggetti interessati – Se la ricerca scientifica usa dati rubati: le implicazioni etiche e morali

– Nadia Martini and Flavia Salvatore write for Agenda Digitale: La decisione dell’EDPB sul caso Whatsapp fornisce chiarimenti sulla trasparenza e sul calcolo delle sanzioni in caso di violazioni multiple da parte dell’app di messaggistica di Facebook. Si vaglia ipotesi di una violazione del principio di trasparenza per ciascuna inosservanza degli obblighi del GDPR – Trasparenza, le violazioni GDPR di Whatsapp sotto la lente di EDPB

– Marco Santarelli writes for Agenda Digitale: Smartphone, smart watch, assistenti vocali, interagiscono con noi e con la realtà che ci circonda. In questa rete di essere umani e dispositivi, si innesta necessariamente una nuova Intelligence, che deve fare i conti con le relazioni che si generano continuamente tra uomo e dispositivo – Intelligence delle cose, le relazioni pericolose tra noi e gli oggetti: le sfide per la sicurezza

– Virginia Sacco and Martina Tudda Rossi write for Agenda Digitale: Negli ultimi mesi gli attacchi informatici ai danni degli ospedali di tutto il mondo sono aumentati esponenzialmente, al punto tale da farne entità più colpite da ransomware. Alla base di questa escalation, vulnerabilità troppo spesso ignorate nonché il fatto che i dati sanitari sono ormai merce preziosissima – Ospedali sotto attacco cyber: perché sono vittime perfette


– Deng Xiaoci writes for Global Times: Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned of nuclear spill from the tripartite alliance AUKUS, during a meeting with foreign ministers of Pacific island countries on Thursday. Observers said those countries mirrored China’s concerns about AUKUS, as the deal of AUKUS will push the region from the “heaven of peace and happiness” to the “brink of war.” – China warns against AUKUS, to make meetings routine with Pacific island countries, enhancing ties to higher level

– Seth Cropsey and Harry Halem writes for Defense News: The current American consumer goods crisis presages the effects of a militarized Sino-American confrontation. Indeed, confrontation is increasingly imaginable, as China’s recent 150-aircraft violation of Taiwanese airspace indicates. A cross-strait conflict necessarily would involve the U.S. and its Pacific allies, and potentially regional rivals, including Vietnam and India. Given the sheer volume of global trade that transits the Indo-Pacific, a conflict would trigger a global depression unlikely to end until a systemic political realignment, much like the Great Depression of the 1930s – The U.S. is wholly unequipped to resupply forces in a great-power conflict

– Stephen Losey writes for Defense News: A bipartisan group of lawmakers is urging the White House to fully fund the F-35 Lightning II program in the coming years. But Senate appropriators are raising concerns about maintenance challenges facing the advanced fifth-generation fighter, and this week questioned the need to buy more F-35s right now – Fund the F-35 program, lawmakers tell the White House

– Nathan Strout writes for Defense News: The Air Force Research Laboratory successfully demonstrated new joint machine learning algorithms with the United Kingdom, showcasing the countries’ ability to collaborate on deploying artificial intelligence in support of war fighters. The cooperation between the Air Force Research Laboratory and the U.K.’s Defense Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) is part of a four-year Autonomy and Artificial Intelligence Collaboration (AAIC) Partnership Agreement signed in December 2020. While AFRL is the lead agency for the partnership, the Office of the Under Secretary for Research and Engineering, the Navy and the Army are also participating. This was the first event in a series of planned demonstrations – US Air Force teams with UK on machine learning demo

– Defense News writes: Major aerospace companies from Israel and South Korea have agreed to expand their partnership on deadly drone technology. Israel Aerospace Industries, or IAI, and Korea Aerospace Industries, or KAI, signed a memorandum of understanding on Oct. 20 on a loitering munitions program for maximizing the effectiveness of strike missions against enemy air defenses, according to an IAI statement – Israel and South Korea to boost collaboration on loitering munitions

– Mark Pomerleau writes for Defense News: The Department of Defense is at an “inflection point” when it comes to cyberspace and cyber operations and must consider the role of the people behind cybersecurity systems, according to a top official. With adversaries increasingly using cyber operations to undermine national security, whether by stealing intellectual property or conducting influence campaigns to sow discord among the American public, the Defense Department has moved to a more offensive approach. This was enabled by new authorities from Congress and the executive branch and culminated in the 2018 DoD cyber strategy – Top official says cyber operations are ‘not just about the systems’

– Jen Judson writes for Defense News: The August test of a Chinese space-based hypersonic missile is unlikely to trigger an arms race, but could influence the White House and Defense Department’s effort to shape new missile defense and nuclear posture strategies, experts say. Top military officials gave clues in the late summer and early fall that they knew this event, which was first reported by the Financial Times, was happening – Chinese hypersonic missile test unlikely to trigger arms race, experts say

– Mike Yeo writes for Defense News: China has for the first time showed off retired 1950s era fighter jets that have been converted to unmanned drones, with satellite photos of two of its east coast bases near Taiwan showing a large number of the jets on site. The People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command published the photos of two Shenyang J-6s on its Weibo social media account during a post about the ceremony marking the start of the training cycle for the second half of 2021 for a training brigade – China shows off drones recycled from Soviet-era fighter jets

– Pol Morillas writes for CIDOB: Security and defence are increasingly grabbing the spotlight in European public debates. In just a few weeks, the withdrawal of Western forces from Afghanistan and the deal between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States (AUKUS) to share nuclear submarine technology and step up their security partnership in the Indo-Pacific have reinvigorated the debate on the EU’s strategic autonomy and shifting strategic alliances in global security. While the American withdrawal and the realignment of forces in response to China’s growing strength are increasingly discernible, the European Union has not moved yet from intent to action in the domain of security and defence. “Strategic autonomy”, in EU parlance, is the ability of the European Union to muster the necessary means to achieve its foreign policy aims in cooperation with partners when possible but acting alone when necessary. This long-running debate on strategic autonomy in European capitals, traditionally limited to the realm of defence, has now extended to trade, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence and global health, among others – Afghanistan, AUKUS and European Strategic Autonomy

– Al Jazeera writes: China conducted not one, but two tests of new hypersonic weapons in July and August, the Financial Times (FT) newspaper has reported, raising more concerns in the United States about the growing military capabilities of its geopolitical rival. The London-based Financial Times reported on Thursday that Beijing launched a rocket that employed a “fractional orbital bombardment” system to propel a nuclear-capable “hypersonic glide vehicle” around the Earth for the first time on July 27, according to four people familiar with US intelligence assessments – China tested hypersonic weapons twice, ‘stunned’ US: Report

Digital Transformation-Emerging and Disruptive Technology:

– Lorenza Saettone writes for Agenda Digitale: Attraverso gli smart glasses molti stanno pensando di leggere la meta a cui stiamo tendendo: il metaverso: qualcosa in più di un mondo virtuale, una realtà estesa, un cyberspazio comune in cui balzare da un’attività all’altra muniti solo di avatar. Quali sono i rischi? – Inghiottiti dal metaverso: i rischi di un mondo visto con gli occhiali “intelligenti”

– Marco Lazzeri writes for Agenda Digitale: L’intelligenza artificiale può aiutare i professionisti della salute mentale e se sì, in che modo? Diversi sono stati i programmi che, nel corso della storia, hanno cercato di dare un contributo. Una panoramiche sulle ricerche, dai primi passi a oggi – Intelligenza artificiale e psicologia, un binomio possibile: il punto sulle ricerche

– Andrea Strippoli Lanternini writes for Agenda Digitale: Le nuove tecnologie sono al centro delle politiche delle potenze mondiali per il prossimo futuro: l’accordo AUKUS, di fatto, dimostra come per vincere le sfide del futuro sarà necessario assicurare una maggiore cooperazione tra alleati per governarne le applicazioni, condividendo conoscenza e informazioni – Accordo AUKUS: il ruolo della tecnologia nella geopolitica del futuro

Ecological Transition-Climate Change: 

– Gill Savage writes for The Strategist: Nation-building can drive economic prosperity, social cohesion and resilience, but we need to engage with the complexity of our modern world to develop pragmatic solutions that address several issues. The temptation to rate one priority higher than another is strong, but we need to avoid binary choices. When it comes to climate policy, that can be challenging – Reaping the social benefits of carbon farming in northern Australia

– Daniel Qiggin, Ruth Townend, Tim Benton write for Chatham House: This research paper – drawing on insights from 200 experts – highlights that, within the current decade, climate hazards are expected to have increasingly serious disruptive impacts. While many hazards may now be inevitable, action on adaptation has the potential to limit the worst expected climate impacts, at regional and global levels. The 10 hazard-impact pathways of greatest near-term concern all relate to regions of Africa and Asia. The impacts of greatest concern – food security and migration and displacement of people – may arise from hazards such as drought, changing rainfall patterns or heatwaves. Impacts will be greatest where communities are already most vulnerable, but will also set off interacting, compounding cascades of secondary impacts that cross borders and continents. That ‘no one is safe until everyone is safe’, often repeated during the COVID-19 pandemic, is just as critical in relation to climate hazards. Between now and 2030, support for adaptation measures to address socio-economic vulnerabilities in the most at-risk regions will be vital. Without such support, it will be impossible to avert systemic climate impact cascades that translate local hazards into impacts felt across the globe – What near-term climate impacts should worry us most?

– Dmitri Trenin writes for Carnegie Moscow Center: The energy crunch in Europe; the knee-jerk accusations of Russia having engineered it to win early approval of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline; and the Kremlin’s riposte, pointing to the EU’s own policy failures, dominate the news. Yet one really important development remains underreported. Moscow’s official view of climate change and energy policy has just undergone a major reversal. Weeks before the COP-26 climate summit in Glasgow, Russia’s Economic Development Ministry has come up with a national goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 – How the Arms Control Approach Could Help Russia Tackle Climate Change


– Diego Cupolo writes for Al Monitor: With Turkey’s bid to join the EU long frozen, the European Commission (EC) released its annual report Tuesday on the nation’s accession process, citing continued democratic backsliding under the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan – After critical EU report, Turkey’s bid to join bloc remains at a ‘standstill’


Chen Qingqing

and Yan Yuzhu writes for Global Times:  With EU lawmakers pushing forward a resolution in deepening so-called “political and economic ties” with the island of Taiwan and the Biden administration’s pick for ambassador to China vowing to make the island “a tough nut to crack,” some European and US politicians have continued sending the wrong signals on the Taiwan question, creating a false image of West-led pressure on the Chinese government at a time when tensions have been rising in the Taiwan Straits – EU, US send wrong signals on Taiwan

Europe-Western Balkans:

– Dimitar Bechev writes for Al Jazeera: Is there a need for the European Union to publicly recommit to the “enlargement” process, or would it be enough for it to merely voice its support for the “European perspective” of the Western Balkans? That was the question many EU leaders were likely battling with in the run-up to the October 6 EU-Western Balkans summit in Slovenia. In the end, after their gathering at Brdo pri Kranju, a 16th-century castle tucked away in the Slovenian countryside, the EU leaders issued a declaration in which they not only “reaffirmed the European perspective of the Western Balkans”, but also the EU’s “commitment to the enlargement process” – The Western Balkans leaving the EU dream behind


– Al Jazeera writes: A criminal gang in Haiti is demanding $1m for each of the 17 American and Canadian missionaries abducted near Port-au-Prince last week. The youngest hostage is just eight months old. The latest violent kidnapping has drawn international attention to Haiti’s instability, which has worsened since the assassination of President Jovenel Moise in July. The Caribbean nation has lurched from crisis to crisis – from natural disasters to lawlessness and poverty. So, will international action be needed to help Haitian officials bring back control? – Will Haiti need international action to bring back stability?

Horn of Africa-Libya:

– Jesutimlehin O. Akamo writes for CIDOB: Identity and conflict shape each other. This is evident in the historical trajectory of the Horn of Africa (HoA) – notably in the conflicts in the Gambella region, between Ethiopia and Eritrea, in Somalia and Tigray – as well as of Libya during and after the long autocratic rule of Muammar Gaddafi. The nexus between identity and conflict dynamics hampers peace efforts. That is why mainstreaming transitional justice into mediation and reconciliation processes is an opportunity to increase peace prospects.2 Transitional justice consists of various measures and structures intended to mitigate and ultimately overcome perceived wrongs and past injustices, and dialogue in this context offers different identity formations a platform for redress – Identity and Transitional Justice in the Horn of Africa and Libya


– Lina Khatib writes for Chatham House: In September 2021, at the height of the unprecedented fuel shortage in Lebanon, a tanker carrying Iranian fuel docked at a Syrian port where the fuel was loaded onto trucks and driven through an illegal border crossing into Lebanon. The fuel shipment was brokered by Iran-backed Hezbollah to help alleviate Lebanon’s energy crisis that has been brought on by the country’s ongoing economic crisis. The newly formed Lebanese government made no comment about the shipment while Hezbollah hailed the arrival of the fuel a ‘victory’ and as having ‘broken the American siege’ on Lebanon. Despite it being in violation of US sanctions on trade with Iran, the US ignored the scenario altogether – Iran’s fuel shipment to Lebanon requires regional policy shift


– Shelly Kittleson writes for Al Monitor: Supporters of firebrand Shiite cleric Muqtada Sadr were already celebrating in the streets the night after the Oct. 10 elections while parties more closely linked to Iran made vague threats about what might happen if they were “cheated” out of votes. A week later, relatively minor protests had begun against alleged voter fraud and some threats of violence had begun to circulate – Sunnis back party of Iraq’s youngest-ever parliamentary speaker


– Adam Simpson writes for The Strategist: In a move that could usher in a new era of interventionist diplomacy—or, alternatively, represent a grudging aberration driven by realpolitik—ASEAN provided the first significant regional rebuke to Myanmar’s generals since their February coup by politely disinviting them to the upcoming ASEAN Summit. Historically, ASEAN has been largely toothless in its reaction to human rights abuses in the region, despite shifts in its rhetoric and discourse over the past decade. With the organisation’s mostly timid and laggardly response to the latest Myanmar coup, history seemed to be repeating itself – ASEAN finds its voice as a military offensive looms in Myanmar

– Ben Bland writes for The Interpreter: Diplomacy is messy. Officials, politicians and (dare I say) think-tank analysts relish the highfalutin talk of rules, treaties, norms, values and principles. But, more often than not, it all comes down to realpolitik and the art of possible. A case in point is the unprecedented decision by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to uninvite Min Aung Hlaing, the general who leads Myanmar’s junta, from its upcoming annual summits – ASEAN muddles through on Myanmar

– Crisis Group writes: What’s new?A dangerous stalemate has developed between Myanmar’s military regime and resistance forces. Both sides are determined to prevail, but neither seems likely to deliver a knockout blow imminently. With deadly attacks on regime targets and brutal regime retaliation continuing, violence and insecurity will persist across the country – The Deadly Stalemate in Post-coup Myanmar

Israel-Saudi Arabia-USA:

– Al Monitor writes: White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan raised the possibility of Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with Israel during his meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman last month, Axios reported Wednesday. Citing three American and Arab sources, the US news outlet said Prince Mohammed did not reject Sullivan’s normalization proposal outright during their meeting in the Red Sea city of Neom on Sept. 27. The Saudis reportedly presented Sullivan with a list of measures that must be taken first, including improvements in US-Saudi relations – Biden aide, Saudi crown prince discussed Israel normalization: report

North Africa: 

– Moussa Bourekba writes for CIDOB:  As climate change intensifies in many parts of the world, more and more policymakers are concerned with its effects on human security and violence. From Lake Chad to the Philippines, including Afghanistan and Syria, some violent extremist (VE) groups such as Boko Haram and the Islamic State exploit crises and conflicts resulting from environmental stress to recruit more followers, expand their influence and even gain territorial control. In such cases, climate change may be described as a “risk multiplier” that exacerbates a number of conflict drivers. Against this backdrop, this case study looks at the relationship between climate change and violent extremism in North Africa, and more specifically the Maghreb countries Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia, which are all affected by climate change and violent extremism. There are three justifications for this thematic and geographical focus. Firstly, these countries are affected by climate change in multiple ways: water scarcity, temperature variations and desertification are only a few examples of the numerous cross border impacts of climate change in this region. Secondly, these three countries have been and remain affected by the activity of violent extremist groups such as Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), the Islamic State organisation (IS) and their respective affiliated groups. Algeria endured a civil war from 1991 to 2002 in which Islamist groups opposed the government, while Morocco and Tunisia have been the targets of multiple terrorist attacks by jihadist individuals and organisations. Thirdly, the connection between climate change and violent extremism has received much less attention in the literature than other climate-related security risks – Climate Change and Violent Extremism in North Africa


– Rasha Abou Jalal writes for Al Monitor: The Women’s Affairs Center in the Gaza Strip has recently announced the launch of procedures to establish, with the participation of civil and official institutions, a national network aimed to develop plans to support women in times of crisis and war. The announcement came during a conference Oct. 7 organized by the Women’s Affairs Center and attended by representatives of official and civil institutions, researchers, academics and activists, all specializing in women’s affairs – Palestinian NGO to form network in Gaza for women affected by war


– Andrey Pertsev writes for Carnegie Moscow Center: Enough time has passed since September’s State Duma elections to be able to say with confidence that unlike previous elections, they have not led to any noticeable reshuffles within the Russian regime.Regional governors who were predicted to be on course for a promotion to Moscow have remained in their posts for another term. Vyacheslav Volodin is still the speaker of the Duma, the lower chamber of the Russian parliament, while the Federation Council, the upper chamber, is preparing to pass a bill that will remove the limits on the number of terms regional heads can serve – Putin’s Labyrinth: Career Stagnation in Russia’s Corridors of Power


– Rina Bassist writes for Al Monitor: Israel and the United Arab Emirates agreed Oct. 20 to cooperate on space missions. The Emirati Space Agency signed a memorandum of understanding with the Israel Space Agency to enhance cooperation in scientific research and space exploration – Israel, Emirates to collaborate in space


– Al Monitor writes: Syrian refugees who return to their home country risk grave human rights abuses and persecution at the hands of the Syrian government and its affiliated militias, Human Rights Watch said in a new report. The 72-page report released Wednesday is based on interviews with 65 returnees and family members who went back to Syria from Lebanon and Jordan between 2017 and 2021. Of that group, the New York-based rights group documented 21 cases of arrest and arbitrary detention, 13 cases of torture, three kidnappings, five extrajudicial killings, 17 enforced disappearances and one allegation of sexual violence – Refugees returning to Syria face reprisals from government


– Daniel Lyons writes for American Enterprise Institute: Last week, House Democrats introduced another bill designed to alter social media companies’ business practices — this time by punishing “personalized algorithms.” This is the latest in a yearlong bipartisan assault on Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act, the primary statute governing hosting of user-generated content online. Given the ongoing heat and light on this issue, it’s important to recognize that Section 230 is not the only legal framework in play. Even without Section 230, another significant obstacle exists to both parties’ efforts to micromanage platforms’ editorial decisions: the First Amendment – Facebook’s First Amendment rights complicate Section 230 debate


– Aly Wine writes for The Interpreter: As strategic tensions between the United States and China calcify so too does the conclusion that they have entered into “a new Cold War”. Indeed, the strenuousness with which both countries avow that they must avoid such an outcome would only seem to confirm that judgment. One reason the analogy is problematic is that it implies that Washington or Beijing can prevail over the other – a speculation, in turn, that presupposes the ability to conceptualise victory. Given the extent of the two countries’ interdependence and the number of vital interests they share, it is difficult to do so – US-China: tiers of cohabitation


– Dmitri Trenin writes for Carnegie Moscow Center: The world’s three foremost geopolitical players and leading military powers of the day—the United States of America, the People’s Republic of China, and the Russian Federation—find themselves in a complex triangular relationship. America is in a state of confrontation with China and Russia; China and Russia are strategic partners; yet while the United States is bolstering NATO to oppose Russia and simultaneously expanding and intensifying its relations with Indo-Pacific countries to check China, Beijing and Moscow have not created a formal alliance to jointly stand up to the United States and its allies. U.S.-China bipolarity has set in, but bloc-building is only proceeding on one side. Is this asymmetric configuration sustainable, or is the world going to see a reemergence of the rigid blocs that were a salient feature of the Cold War? – The Impact of Sino-American Rivalry on Russia’s Relations With China


– Adam Lucente writes for Al Monitor: Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez of Texas said Tuesday that establishing ties with President Bashar al-Assad would “legitimize cruelty” in Syria, joining other lawmakers, both Republicans and Democrats, in expressing concern about a trend among some Arab states which have increased diplomatic contacts with Syria – Members of Congress criticize normalization with Syria’s Assad

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