venerdì, Marzo 1, 2024


Diario geostrategico,  15 novembre 2021

Buona lettura ! 

The Science of Where Magazine’s interviews:

– The road to the “new normal” and the role of the G20. The Science of Where meets Priyadarshi Dash. Associate Professor at Research and Information System for Developing Countries (RIS), New Delhi, he has 14 years of experience in policy research on trade, investment, infrastructure and fintech issues in the context of G20, IORA, BIMSTEC and Indo-Pacific

– Governo dei dati tra geopolitica e tutela del cittadino. The Science of Where Magazine incontra Ivana Bartoletti, Global Chief Privacy Officer a WIPRO Technologies e Visiting Policy Fellow presso l’ Università di Oxford

– Tecnologia e responsabilità: uno snodo decisivo. The Science of Where Magazine incontra Federico Cabitza, Università di Milano-Bicocca

– Inside the ethics of artificial intelligence: for a decentralized approach. The Science of Where Magazine meets James Brusseau, Philosopher, Pace University

– L’intelligenza artificiale contro le discriminazioni sul lavoro. The Science of Where Magazine incontra Keith Sonderling, Commissioner del U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission

– Per Italia e Germania, il futuro è nelle nuove tecnologie. Intervista esclusiva con l’Ambasciatore d’Italia a Berlino, Armando Varricchio

– Gathering strenght, gathering storms. Visions on artificial intelligence. The Science of Where Magazine meets Michael Littman and Peter Stone


East Asia Forum: Leaders of the 21 APEC economies met virtually on Friday and made progress on some of the biggest economic challenges facing the world: climate change and pandemic recovery. There was also agreement to defend the multilateral trading system — the scaffolding that holds together the global economy. – Economic cooperation in the Asia Pacific is central to global progress

Peter Drysdale, East Asia Forum: The online APEC economic leaders meeting chaired by New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern over the weekend underlines just why APEC still matters. – Why APEC still matters — more than ever

Arab World:

Arab Reform Initiative: The Arab Reform Initiative (ARI) launched today its e-book entitled “Between the Importance of Roles and Challenges of Organization and Representation: Independent Professional Associations in the Arab world”. This e-book is part of ARI’s research efforts to better understand elements and conditions of change in the Arab world, as well as its main actors. Specifically, it sheds light on “independent” professional associations in order to understand their roles, the challenges they face, and the opportunities they are presented with in their attempt to organise their membership and the “street” more generally and contribute to peaceful power transitions. – Professional Associations: Assessing their Potential as Actors of Change


– Dina Azhgaliyeva, ADBI: Developing Asian countries, such as Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Thailand, and Viet Nam, have announced their net-zero carbon emission targets by mid-century at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) in Glasgow, Scotland, and financing climate change mitigation has been at the forefront of discussions for making ambitious climate action a reality. While the number of responsible investors targeting green investments is growing, international financial institutions have also been urged to play their part and work toward unleashing the trillions in private and public sector finance required to secure global net zero. The Asian Development Bank (ADB), for instance, increased its climate finance target from $80 billion to $100 billion by 2030 and revised its Energy Policy ahead of COP26. – After COP26, developing Asia’s challenge is meeting ambitious climate commitments


Dane Moores, The Interpreter: There is a strategic mismatch between Australia’s increasing profile on the global stage and its stagnant aid program. Australia’s position in global politics has never been more prominent. The AUKUS partnership – a landmark security arrangement between Australia, the United Kingdom and United States to share top-secret submarine technology – is the most recent and obvious demonstration of Australia’s emerging role on the world stage. But it isn’t an anomaly. Australia increasingly finds itself sitting at the table with great powers, whether it’s at the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (or Quad) alongside the United States, India, and Japan, or being invited to the G7 Summit despite sitting outside the top world economies. – Australia’s aid ambition should rise with its geo-political status


– Willy Wo-Lap Lam, The Jamestown Foundation: The words “leader for life” do not appear in the communique summarizing the Resolution on History passed at the Sixth Plenum of the 19th Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee held in Beijing from November 8 to 11 (CPC, November 11). Nevertheless, there is little doubt that President Xi Jinping has won the approval of the ruling Central Committee to stay in office for one, if not two more five-year terms. The major task of the plenum, which convenes 197 full Central Committee members and 151 alternates, was to pass a Resolution on the Major Achievements and Historical Experience of the Party over the Past Century (hereafter- the Resolution). The Resolution amounts to an unqualified affirmation of the achievements of the CCP’s three titans: Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping and Xi Jinping (Xinhua, November 11;, November 11). – Early Warning Brief: Did Xi Jinping Secure “Leader for Life” Status at the Sixth Plenum?

China-Middle East: 

– Cui Fandi, Global Times: China displayed its L-15 advanced jet trainer at the Dubai Airshow in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on Sunday along with other Chinese arms products, the first time that the Chinese military aviation sector has systematically exhibited its products in a large comprehensive international airshow outside the country since the COVID-19 pandemic. – China’s L-15 advanced jet trainer showcased at Dubai Airshow, reflecting nation’s attention to Middle East arms market


– Chen Qingqing and Yan Yuzhu, Global Times: Ahead of the highly anticipated virtual meeting between the top leaders of the world’s two largest economies this week, senior Chinese diplomat warned the US to stop manipulating “the Taiwan card” to contain and encircle the Chinese mainland. The warning came after several recent misconducts by Washington politicians, and experts predict the Taiwan question will be a major topic of concern at the meeting. – Taiwan question to top Xi-Biden meet

Climate Finance:

– Akshay Mathur, Mannat Jaspal, ORF: The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that an annual investment of US $2.4 trillion is needed in the energy sector alone until 2035 to limit temperature rise to below 1.5 °C from pre-industrial levels. Indeed, climate finance takes centre-stage in every world climate meeting under the aegis of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Developed countries committed to channel US $100 billion in climate finance annually by 2020 to developing countries. The commitment for US $100 billion was first announced in Copenhagen Accord in 2009, formalised in the Cancun Agreements of 2010, and reaffirmed by the Paris Agreement in 2015. – The geoeconomics of climate finance


– Shan Jie and Zhao Yusha, Global Times: Nearly 200 countries seized humanity’s “last and best chance” at the COP26 climate summit, during which they reached an agreement to curtail the worsening impact of carbon emissions on the climate, including keeping the all-important goal of 1.5 C alive.  – COP26 strikes deal to strengthen emission pledges, keeps 1.5 C alive

Digital Economy:

– Bertin Martens, Geoffrey Parker, Georgios Petropoulos, Marshall Van Alstyne, Bruegel: Digital platforms facilitate interactions between consumers and merchants that allow collection of profiling information, which drives innovation and welfare. Private incentives, however, lead to information asymmetries resulting in market failures both on-platform, among merchants, and off-platform, among competing platforms. This paper develops two product-differentiation models to study private and social incentives to share information within and between platforms. We show that there is scope for ex-ante regulation of mandatory data sharing that improves social welfare better than competing interventions, such as barring entry, break-up, forced divestiture or limiting recommendation steering. These alternate proposals do not make efficient use of information. We argue that the location of data access matters and develop a regulatory framework that introduces a new data right for platform users, the in-situ data right, which is associated with positive welfare gains. By construction, this right enables effective sharing of information together with its context, without reducing the value created by network effects. It also enables regulatory oversight but limits data privacy leakages. We discuss crucial elements of its implementation in order to achieve innovation-friendly and competitive digital markets. – Towards efficient information sharing in network markets

Ecological Transition:

– Kate Hampton, Mridula Pandey, Shirish Sinha, ORF: The new IPCC Sixth Assessment Report clearly states that the coming decades are the planet’s last chance to keep global warming below 1.5°C before the end of the 21st century. It underlined the need for economies to decarbonise (i.e., to undertake deep reductions in CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions) to save the planet from the manifold consequences of climate change. Indeed, commitments to decarbonisation or clean energy transition have been gaining ground, especially over the past year. Nearly 130 countries, responsible for 73 percent of global GHG emissions, have either announced net zero targets or are considering them. If such goals are achieved in full, global warming could be limited to 2oC by the end of the century. – A just path to a decarbonised future


– Rebecca Christie, Grégory Claeys, Pauline Weil, Bruegel: The Next Generation EU (NGEU) programme is radically changing the way the European Union interacts with financial markets because of its ambitious and ground breaking new public debt programme. The European Commission has adopted a new, diversified borrowing strategy, similar to that of other major issuers, to raise money safely, reliably and in a cost-effective manner. EU debt therefore has to be attractive to financial markets and must maintain a strong credit rating. – Next Generation EU borrowing: a first assessment

– Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega, Carole Mathieu, IFRI: On its path to carbon neutrality, the European Union (EU) will be exposed to growing energy price volatility and vulnerable to Russian and Chinese pressure on supply and demand. – The Energy Price Crises: A Reality Check for Europe’s Green Deal

Josep Borrell, Project-Syndicate: A compass helps one find one’s way, and the “Strategic Compass” that I have drafted at the behest of the European Council will serve as an operational guide for the European Union’s development and decision-making on security and defense. It is now heading to EU foreign affairs and defense ministers for discussions next week. – A Strategic Compass for Europe


– Maxim Samorukov, Carnegie Moscow Center: Images of crowds of refugees and migrants at EU borders may be a common occurrence, but there’s something very different about the current scenes at the border between Poland and Belarus. For those people were helped to get there not by human traffickers or other organized crime gangs, but by none other than the Belarusian authorities. For this reason, the EU cannot let them in. What would in other circumstances be a humanitarian act would, in this case, amount to pandering to a dictator and giving in to blackmail. – The EU’s Latest Migrant Crisis: Will Belarus Get Its Way?


Anthea Roberts, Nicolas Lamp, The Interpreter: People use mental shortcuts to organise their thinking about complex issues, but because the same situation can be presented in different ways, complications often arise. Take economic globalisation as an example. The acrimonious debates about globalisation represent different ways of framing the issue. Those frames matter – they lead to different storylines about who wins, who loses, and why it’s important. – Framing globalisation


– Rumi Aijaz, ORF: In some Indian cities, people living in planned residential colonies are not receiving sufficient quantities of water for daily consumption from the municipal agencies. Although water supply infrastructure exists in the colonies and water is released in the piped network, most households still face the problem of water shortage. A situation analysis reveals that the problem exists not as much due to less availability of water with the supply agency, but is more a result of administrative mismanagement and civic misuse. Thus, instead of improvement, the situation has deteriorated over the years. About 15-20 years ago, demand for water was less due to less number of residents, and supply as well as pressure at which water was received were considered adequate. At that time, water was received every day, supply timings were fixed, and because of high pressure, electric pumps were not required to lift water for storage in rooftop/overhead tanks. However, the situation has changed with the passage of time. As the population grew, the demand for water also increased. To understand this change, here are some interesting facts on the practices followed in water supply and consumption. – Water supply challenges in planned areas of cities

– Chandra Bhushan, ORF: The global community has limited time to act on climate change mitigation if it wants to avoid the irreversible, catastrophic impacts. Two reports, this year, have raised the “red alert”. First is “Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector”, by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which underscores the scale and urgency of action that must be undertaken to ensure that, in the next three decades, all nations remain on-track to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement of 2015. There is also “Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Working Group I, Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report” of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which warns of the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events that will affect economies and people across the world. – Achieving net-zero through just transition

– Vivan Sharan, Samir Saran, ORF: Progress, as the world has designed and defined it, requires material production which, in turn, requires energy. Historically, therefore, fossil fuels like coal were key in economic growth across geographies. Today, the developed economies stand on the edifice of fossil fuels, carbon-intensive industries, and lifestyles that have resulted in global warming. The same growth path is now being questioned, and the poor and developing countries are being asked to build, find, and fund newer low- and no-carbon models to lift their people out of poverty and achieve their development goals. –  Financing the end of coal: The market case for decarbonising India’s energy sector

– Jayant Sinha, ORF: With the COVID-19 pandemic slowing down and the economy recovering strongly, India’s development pathway must now focus on two key areas: Climate change and job creation. The next decade will be decisive in achieving these twin goals. The first requires a rapid transition away from fossil fuels as well as adapting to disruptive new weather patterns; the second entails the creation of millions of high-quality jobs every year, for all of India’s young workforce. India needs to ensure that its youth have access to employment, while simultaneously shifting to a deep decarbonisation pathway. The failure to address these challenges will likely result in widespread distress, unchecked migration into collapsing cities, and significant social strife. India’s actions in the next few years will determine whether its development model can ensure sustainable prosperity for all. The choices are stark, the consequences profound. – India’s decisive decade


– Zhang Changyue, Global Times: Chinese observers slammed the Indian government’s plan to deploy the BrahMos missile – its most advanced missile – at the India-China border, warning it would add new barriers in talks to peacefully address the border tension and further deteriorate ties. However, they noted that the new weapon would be only of theoretical use while posing no actual threat to China’s security. – India’s plan to deploy BrahMos missile escalates border tension, but of no actual threat: observers

– Rajeswari (Raji) Pillai Rajagopalan, ORF: Following the Galwan conflict in June 2020, China-India relations have gone through one of their worst phases. Despite several rounds of military and diplomatic talks, progress in military disengagement has been painstakingly slow, and there is a deployment of 50,000-60,000 troops on each side of the line of the actual control (LAC), the temporary border between India and China. Even though talks are continuing between the two sides, China has been engaged in the construction of villages near the border areas. There have been reports for close to a year about such activities, but this has once again risen to the attention of the Indian policy community and the media following the U.S. Department of Defense’s recent annual report on China’s military power. – Did China Create New Facts on the Ground Along the LAC With India?


ORF: Collaboration on climate change is central to the relationship between India and the European Union (EU). Since 2016, the EU and India have together pursued a Clean Energy and Climate Partnership (CECP), which focuses on developing cooperation in clean energy and the implementation of the Paris Agreement, including in the area of energy efficiency, renewable energy, smart grids, storage, sustainable finance, and climate mitigation and adaptation. The European Commission in 2018 in its note to the European Parliament and the European Council on partnership with India indicated that a crucial element of the EU’s India strategy was “an enhanced EU-India partnership on sustainable modernisation” featuring in particular cooperation on climate change, the environment, green energy, and urbanisation, which would “help the EU and India to meet internal objectives as well as international commitments”. – India-EU climate relations: Outcomes and recommendations from the ORF & CEPS India-EU Track 1.5 Dialogue on Climate Action and Ambition

Intangible Capitalism:

Eric Hazan, Jonathan Haskel, Stian Westlake, Project-Syndicate: In a 2014 book, the Nobel laureate economist Joseph E. Stiglitz and Bruce C. Greenwald argued that the most important societal endowment is the ability to learn. Today, it is increasingly evident that the “learning society” has not only been created, but is starting to drive our economies. – The Rise of Intangible Capitalism

Iran-Shanghai Cooperation Organisation:

– Jingdong Yuan, East Asia Forum: At its most recent meeting in Tajikistan this September, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) started a formal process to grant Iran full membership. This will be the second time the organisation expands after accepting India and Pakistan in 2017 — now extending its reach from Central and South Asia to the greater Middle East. – Iran on the go with the SCO


. Michael Young, Carnegie Middle East Center: Ali Hashem is a senior Al-Jazeera English correspondent who has long covered Iraq and Iran. He is also a research fellow at the Sectarianism, Proxies, and De-Sectarianization Project (SEPAD) based at Lancaster University. His research focuses on the Middle East, with an emphasis on Iran, Lebanon, and Iraq. Diwan interviewed Hashem to get his perspective on recent developments in Iraq, where Prime Minister Mustapha al-Kadhimi was the target of a drone attack on his home last week. The country has been caught in a deadlock since parliamentary elections in October, when the Popular Mobilization Forces lost a significant number of seats in parliament, to the advantage of Muqtada al-Sadr and the former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki. In the aftermath of the Kadhimi assassination attempt, Ismail Qaani, the head of the Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, visited Baghdad to calm tensions between the different Shia factions. – Keeping an Eye on Baghdad


– Mohanad Hage Ali, Carnegie Middle East Center: “Those who are innocent don’t fear the judiciary,” Lebanese President Michel Aoun tweeted on November 10, in reference to Hezbollah’s campaign to stop the investigation of judge Tareq Bitar, who for months has been trying to uncover responsibilities in the devastating Beirut Port explosion of August 4, 2020. Given Aoun’s fifteen-year alliance with Hezbollah, such public criticism of the organization from the president is unprecedented. – The Politics of Perdition


Aneel Salman, East Asia Forum: In 2025, Pakistan may face an acute water crisis. To avoid this outcome, Pakistan must frame a rational, politically unbiased and holistic water policy that reflects its priorities of growth and development. The problem is not due to water availability, but the mismanagement of water resources. – Pakistan’s looming water crisis


– Maxim Samorukov, Carnegie Moscow Center: For three years, relations between Russia and Belarus revolved around talks on three dozen integration programs, but when the two countries finally signed the documents on November 4, there was no catharsis. Despite the years of speculation and fears for Belarusian sovereignty over what form closer integration might take, the programs were ultimately reduced to mostly nonbinding rhetoric. – Russia-Belarus Integration: Why Moscow Gained So Little


Eugene Rumer, Andrew S. Weiss, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Will 2021 be remembered as the year when President Vladimir Putin gave up on talking to Ukraine’s leadership and made his decisive move to return it by force to Russia’s orbit? He triggered a serious war scare in March and April of this year, but for some unknown reason decided not to move ahead with re-invading a vulnerable, much smaller neighbor. Now, Putin is once again moving troops near the border with Ukraine. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has suggested that Russia may be laying a trap for Ukraine that intentionally provokes Russia into invading. Seasoned observers of the Russian military are warning that the possibility of war may be higher now than in the spring. – Ukraine: Putin’s Unfinished Business


David Hopkins, The Interpreter: At a recent anti-government rally in central Bangkok, one of the leaders of a youth-led movement demanding sweeping political reforms carried a message etched in blood. After addressing the crowd on a rainy Sunday evening on 31 October, Panusaya “Rung” Sithijirawattanakul used a razor blade to carve the digits 112 into her forearm, struck through by a diagonal cut. – Thailand’s regressive royal insult law


– Chris Chivvis, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Before long, the White House will release its national security strategy. In many quarters inside and outside the halls of government, this document will be seen as just another bureaucratic exercise with little bearing on the blizzard of issues President Joe Biden and his senior team are facing. The tendency in Washington to play it safe and to stick to the tried-and-true formulations of the past may be especially strong among administration officials who see Biden’s presidency as a restoration of proper order after four chaotic years under former president Donald Trump. The White House could thus be tempted to use the strategy as a tool of domestic politics, trotting out the familiar (and seemingly endless) array of international challenges coupled with an equally familiar set of U.S. government responses and approaches. – Biden’s Forthcoming National Security Strategy: Making It Real


William A. Galston, Brookings: In the wake of the chaotic U. S. withdrawal from Afghanistan last August, many observers believed that the memory would quickly fade as Americans shifted their attention back to domestic issues. It now appears that this judgment was premature. Our hasty retreat from a 20-year war contributed to the decline of confidence in President Biden’s over competence and his ability to handle the duties of commander-in-chief. And on Veterans’ Day, More in Common, an organization that seeks to identify the cause of and cures for our polarized politics and society, made public its

survey of the impact of the withdrawal on our veterans and on our society. – Anger, betrayal, and humiliation: how veterans feel about the withdrawal from Afghanistan


Dimitar Bechev, Al Jazeera: On October 31, US President Joe Biden and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met on the margins of the G20 gathering in Rome, ending weeks of speculation about whether such a summit would take place. Earlier that month, a short-lived diplomatic crisis had demonstrated just how strained ties between the two countries are. The US ambassador to Ankara David Satterfield and nine other Western envoys had been threatened with expulsion after they called for the release of jailed Turkish philanthropist Osman Kavala – an act the Turkish government perceived as meddling in its internal affairs. – US and Turkey: It is not over yet

Western Balkans: 

– Grzegorz Peszko, Richard Record, Sanja Madzarevic-Sujster, and Simon David Ellis, Brookings: COVID-19 hit the countries of the Western Balkans hard. All six economies—Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia—were in deep recessions in 2020. But the region is bouncing back in 2021 and expects a return to pre-crisis growth, although fragilities remain. – Greening the recovery from COVID-19 crisis in the Western Balkans

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