mercoledì, Agosto 10, 2022

GLI USA E IL CHIPS ACT

FOCUS

August 2, 2022. Mark Muro, Brookings. The CHIPS and Science Act—the sprawling technology package Congress passed last week—has been called many things.  What started as the Endless Frontier Act became the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act, then the COMPETES Act, the Bipartisan Innovation Act, CHIPS-Plus, and finally, the CHIPS and Science Act. Can the CHIPS Act heal the nation’s economic divides?

AROUND THE WORLD

Africa

China

  • August 3,  2022. Hongzhou Zhang, Genevieve Donnellon-May, East Asia Forum. Global fish stocks are facing a crisis, with nearly all classified as either fully exploited, overexploited or significantly depleted. China is the largest contributor to this problem as a world leader in both fishery exports and imports. It is simultaneously responsible for 15 per cent of the global total of caught fish and one-third of fish consumption worldwide. China’s efforts to reel in overfishing

Europe

  • August 3, 2022. Oya CelasunDora Iakova and Ian Parry, IMF blog. Soaring energy prices have sharply increased living costs for Europeans. Since early last year, global oil prices doubled, coal prices nearly quadrupled and European natural gas prices increased almost seven-fold. With energy prices likely to remain above pre-crisis levels for some time, Europe must adapt to higher import bills for fossil fuels. How Europe Can Protect the Poor from Surging Energy Prices

India

  • August 2, 2022. Xinyu WengNadeem Karmali, World Bank blogs. Data-driven housing studies in the developed world have shown that regulations and geography have played a part in reducing the supply of housing in many cities. As a result, new housing construction has been muted by these factors, despite house price appreciation. In turn, some policymakers are exploring adjustments to housing density regulations to increase housing supply.  Housing demand in urban India: Through the (kitchen) roof

Japan

Japan – Indo Pacific

  • August 2, 2022. Mason Richey, Michael Reiterer, East Asia Forum. As a major regional power and key US ally, Japan has a special role in influencing security and economic outcomes in the Indo-Pacific region. To begin with, Japan’s position relies on Tokyo’s alliance with Washington, which stations 50,000 soldiers on Japanese territory and provides the archipelago with extended nuclear deterrence. The United States is also Japan’s second-largest trade partner and a partner in democratic values. Japan’s ability to promote a ‘free and open Indo-Pacific’ depends on the growth and adaptation of this alliance, as well as on cooperation with other partners.  Answering the bell — Japan’s Indo-Pacific leadership aspirations

Russia

  • August 2, 2022. Paul Globe, The Jamestown Foundation. Since 1991, when the Soviet Union disintegrated and Kaliningrad became an exclave separated from the Russian Federation by Poland and Lithuania, Moscow has been worried about two aspects: transportation links between Kaliningrad and Russia proper and changes in the Kaliningrad population’s attitudes because of their neighbors’ actions—which are leaving the populace less like their nominally Russian ethnic counterparts and potentially less loyal. The first has almost always attracted more attention, most recently when Lithuania imposed, and then lifted, a ban on the movement of EU sanctioned goods between Russia and Kaliningrad and when a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) exercise suggested that the West might seize Kaliningrad in a time of war (see EDM, October 12, 2021March 10). The second angle is at least as worrisome as the first, if less obvious, because it may represent a more serious long-term challenge to the Kremlin’s control in Kaliningrad and its ability to maintain the Russian nation’s unity more generally against regionalist sentiments. Moscow Fears ‘De-Russianization’ of Kaliningrad and Steps Up to Block It

Russia – Turkey

  • August 3, 2022. Ian Hill, The Interpreter. Ahead of this week’s meeting between presidents Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Sochi, it’s worth trying to make sense of the important yet complex – and occasionally baffling – relationship between Russia and Turkey. The key to understanding this lies in their intertwined interests and aspirations in Eurasia.  Russia and Turkey: Sometimes strongmen need to get along

Russia – Ukraine (on the ground – impact)

  • August 2, 2022. Richard Arnold, The Jamestown Foundation. One of the seemingly forgotten but oft-victimized casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian war has been the Ahiska Turk minority residing in Ukraine and Russia alike. The Ahiskas, also known as Meskhetians, are one of the most persecuted minorities in history and were deported en masse by Joseph Stalin in 1944 from present-day Georgia to Uzbekistan. In 1989, they were the victims of pogroms from Uzbek nationalists and relocated throughout the Soviet Union. While in many regions of Russia their stay was tolerable, in southern Krasnodar Krai, the Ahiskas were denied residency rights (and thus access to social services) as well as being subject to periodic violence from Cossack militias (Richard Arnold, Russian Nationalism and Ethnic Violence: Symbolic Violence, Lynching, Pogrom, and Massacre, 2016). The persecution led, once again, to a deportation, this time to the United States under a 2004–2006 visa waiver program initiated by the US Department of State. One of the Ahiskas’ new homes became the city of Dayton, Ohio, where an Ahiska Turk cultural center now serves some 10,000 Ahiska refugees. And the war in Ukraine looks set to increase that number greatly. Caught in Conflict: Ahiska Turks and the Russo-Ukrainian War
  • August 2, 2022. Olevs Nikers, The Jamestown Foundation. Focused on substantial reinforcement of self-defense capabilities while the regional security situation deteriorates due to Russia’s re-invasion of Ukraine, Latvia is considering reinstating a  policy of compulsory military service, which is officially supported by the governing political parties (Lsm.lv, July 13). Compulsory military service already exists in the other two Baltic states, Estonia and Lithuania. Estonia has continued to maintain compulsory conscription even while developing a professional army. Latvia Contemplates Conscription in Face of Russian Aggression
  • August 2, 2022. Kateryna Stepanenko, Layne Philipson, Katherine Lawlor, Karolina Hird, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Russian forces have likely decided to attack Avdiivka frontally from occupied Donetsk Oblast territory rather than waiting for Ukrainian forces to withdraw from their prepared defensive positions as a result of Russian envelopment operations northeast of the settlement.The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and Kremlin-sponsored sources have published videos suggesting that Russian forces pushed Ukrainian forces out of their positions around the Butivka Coal Mine ventilation shaft southwest of Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces have held positions around the Butivka Coal Mine ventilation shaft since 2015 and have described the location as the closest Ukrainian position to Donetsk City and a key defensive outpost for Avdiivka. Russian forces have likely captured the Ukrainian position, given the Ukrainian General Staff‘s vague reports of ”partially” successful Russian advances in the area. Russian forces are also continuing assaults on Pisky, west of Avdiivka, and will likely attempt to seize the E50 highway connecting the two settlements. Russian forces had previously attempted to break through Avdiivka’s northeastern outskirts but have not made significant progress in months. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 2

USA

USA – Israel – Middle East

TOPICS

Climate Change & Sustainability

  • August 2, 2022. Think China. Erik Baark points out some of the peculiarities of China’s emissions trading system (ETS) with Chinese characteristics on its one-year anniversary. Going forward, will the Chinese ETS gradually morph into an ETS in the likes of the EU ETS as it works towards meeting its dual carbon ambitions? A happy birthday to China’s national emissions trading scheme, Economy News
  • July 29, 2022. Caixin Global, Think China. Data centres have become a thriving sector in the Asia Pacific, with global companies setting up infrastructure in hotspots such as Singapore, Hong Kong and Sydney. Compared with traditional real estate assets, data centres promise higher returns on investment. However, developers will need to contend with rising energy costs and stricter regulations for greener developments. From Singapore to China, data centre investments thriving amid challenges , Economy News

Counter terrorism – Defense – Intelligence – Military – Security – Space

  • August 3, 2022. Naval News. L3Harris Technologies, in collaboration with the U.S. Navy, demonstrates how unmanned surface vehicle technologies can provide critical support for traditional maritime forces during the 2022 Rim of the Pacific Exercise (RIMPAC 2022) – the world’s largest international maritime warfare exercise. The demonstration is being held June 29 through August 4, 2022, off the coast of Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. L3Harris and US Navy Demonstrates AUSV Capabilities at RIMPAC 2022
  • August 3, 2022. Benjamin Felton, Naval News. The Kongsberg-Thales “StrikeMaster” is still the only confirmed competitor for the Australian Army’s land-based anti-ship missile project, Project Land 4100 Phase 2. Several potential competitors with a significant presence in the Australian market, contacted for comment by Naval News, declined to confirm if they will submit bids for the effort.  Is NSM a shoo-in for Australia’s Land Based Anti-Ship Missile?
  • August 2, 2022. Meir Elran, Asa Kasher, INSS. “The Spirt of the IDF,” the IDF ethical code formulated twenty years ago, was updated recently with a new fundamental value: “stateliness” (mamlachtiyut, in Hebrew). What did Chief of Staff Kochavi intend with his addition of the term, and how can this value be best instilled among IDF soldiers and the general public? Stateliness, IDF style
  • August 2, 2022. Shimon Stein, Ephraim Asculai, INSS. The 10th Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference is underway in New York, against the background of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in itself a gross violation of the treaty; Putin’s threat to resort to nuclear weapons; the deadlock in negotiations with Iran; and more. In these difficult circumstances, the participants will hopefully be able at the very least to issue a joint statement affirming the norms underlying the NPT. The Tenth NPT Review Conference: In the Shadow of Russian Aggression in Ukraine
  • July 29, 2022. Shin Kawashima, Think China. Japanese academic Shin Kawashima notes that concerns about Japan’s possible increased militarism amid constitutional revision may be misplaced. The debate in Japan is focused on making Japan’s Self-Defence Forces constitutional, and not so much altering Article 9 itself. If countries are concerned about Japan’s security moves, they should really be looking out for changes in documents such as the revised National Security Strategy to be launched at the end of the year. Japanese academic: Misunderstandings surrounding Japan’s constitutional revision, Politics News
  • August 3, 2022. , The Strategist. Australia’s recent change of government provides a useful opportunity to reflect on the problems of the South China Sea and the way ahead for our national policies. In a sense, the clear continuity between the approach of the last government and, so far, that of Labor confirms the need to consider matters both in their wider strategic context and for the long term. As a strategic problem, the South China Sea isn’t going to go away. Australia must speak carefully and carry a big enough stick in the South China Sea
  • August 3, 2022. , Project-Syndicate, The Strategist. US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s arrival in Taiwan has incited a predictably strong response from China. Chinese warplanes have brushed up against the median line dividing the Taiwan Strait. The Chinese foreign ministry has warned of ‘serious consequences’ as a result of Pelosi’s visit to the island. Chinese President Xi Jinping has told US President Joe Biden that ‘those who play with fire will perish by it’. And now, China has announced a major military exercise with live-fire drills starting tomorrow (just after Pelosi leaves Taiwan). The spectre of military confrontation looms large. Pelosi’s visit and the coming Taiwan crisis
  • August 3, 2022. , The Strategist. America has killed al-Qaeda’s head, Ayman al-Zawahiri, who was living in a wealthy Kabul suburb under the noses of the Taliban leadership. Al-Zawahiri living and working in Afghanistan is an echo of the safe harbour the Taliban gave his former boss, Osama bin Laden, to plan and conduct the horrific September 11 attacks. That continued until the Taliban were ousted at the start of the 20-year Afghan war. So, there’s a symmetry to the Taliban again harbouring an al-Qaeda head while America hunts him. Zawahiri’s death: echoes of 9/11 and a demonstration of US resolve
  • August 2, 2022. Jaspreet Gill, Breaking Defense. As Congress works through the messy process of building next year’s Pentagon budget, there are concerns within the Army that cuts proposed by Senate appropriators to network and radio modernization upgrades will impact the service’s ability to field key components of its next capability set, an Army official told Breaking Defense.  In Army, worry follows Senators’ proposed cuts to network, comms upgrades: Official
  • August 2, 2022. Justin Katz, Breaking Defense. The Navy’s engineers guiding the service’s future unmanned surface vessels say this year’s RIMPAC has shown that, unlike some in Washington, the fleet is less concerned about the autonomy software driving the new tech and focused more on what missions it can help sailors achieve. After RIMPAC, sailor feedback shows evolving view of unmanned vessels: Officials
  • August 2, 2022. Andrew Eversden, Breaking Defense. The Rafael-made Iron Dome system successfully defeated cruise missile and unmanned aerial system surrogates during a recent test with the US Army at White Sands Missile Range, the Israeli company announced today. US Army successfully tests Iron Dome at White Sands Missile Range
  • August 2, 2022. Breaking Defense. China has never been shy about using economic ties to try and reach geostrategic goals, and for many years it found a willing partner in the nations of Europe. But in 2022 that ground has shifted, and skepticism in Europe towards Beijing is now growing. Nathan Picarsic and Emily de La Bruyere, senior fellows at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, argue below that now is the time for the US and Europe to come together for an industrial/geopolitical strategy of their own for dealing with China. It’s time for a US-EU industrial strategy on China – even if it costs industry
  • August 2, 2022. Jaspreet Gill, Breaking Defense. The United States is at a “relative disadvantage” in the field of biotechnology compared to adversaries like China and risks “ceding American leadership over one of the most powerful and transformative fields of technology in recent memory,” according to a new report from the Center for a New American Security.  US at ‘relative disadvantage’ in biotech compared to China, report finds
  • August 2, 2022. Jacqueline Feldscher, Defense One. For decades, Republicans have positioned themselves as staunch supporters of the military, but last week’s vote to stall benefits for veterans exposed to burn pits has given some Democrats a political opening ahead of the November midterms to paint their opponents as un-American officials who refuse to support those they sent to fight.  Dems Using Burn-Pit Vote To Target GOP Opponents in Midterms
  • August 2, 2022.
  • August 2, 2022. William Reinsch, Emily Benson, Aidan Arasasingham, CSIS. Technological innovation has been a driving force for U.S. global leadership and economic prosperity for over a century. This legacy of innovation largely stands on the foundation of a key component: semiconductor chips, found today in almost all electronic products. Semiconductors are an integral component of various consumer products across industries, including cars, smartphones, and household appliances. But semiconductors can also be used in dual-use goods—products that have both military and civilian applications—such as air guidance systems for both civilian and military aircraft. The tension between economic gain and security risk inherent within dual-use semiconductor goods is heightened in fields with national security implications, such as supercomputing and artificial intelligence (AI). How the government and private sector manage the global value chains (GVCs) of chips will directly affect U.S. global competitiveness and national security going forward. Given the evolving security relationship between the United States, the Quad, and the European Union, this paper focuses on both Quad and EU countries and the possibilities for friend-shoring in both. It assesses how the EU and U.S. governments can collaborate to avoid duplicative policies that fail to enhance the overall resiliency of transatlantic semiconductor supply chains. Securing Semiconductor Supply Chains: An Affirmative Agenda for International Cooperation
  • August 2, 2022. Vanda Felbab-Brown, Brookings. The successful U.S. hit against Ayman al-Zawahri, the post-Osama bin Laden leader of al-Qaida, is a great moment of justice: Zawahri had been a key plotter of 9/11 and other vicious terrorist attacks. Although in recent years he has not been involved in daily tactical al-Qaida planning, his death will have a negative strategic and demoralizing impact on al-Qaida. Al-Qaida will not stop existing and operating, but it has again been put on the back foot. What Ayman al-Zawahri’s death says about terrorism in Taliban-run Afghanistan

Cybersecurity

  • August 3, 2022. Lennart Maschmeyer, Lawfare. In a Lawfare post, Jason Healey provides a thoughtful critique of my recently published theory on the “subversive trilemma.” The key argument I make (summarized here) is that cyber operations are instruments of subversion that hold great strategic promise but suffer from a set of three interlinked operational constraints: speed, intensity of effects, and control. Because under a given set of conditions actors can typically only improve one of these variables at the cost of losing out on the remaining ones, these constraints pose a trilemma for sponsors of cyber operations and limit their strategic value.  The Subversive Trilemma in Cyber Conflict and Beyond
  • August 2, 2022.  John Sakellariadis, Atlantic Council. This issue brief investigates the drivers of the ransomware surge that menaced the United States in the summer of 2021, explains why these attacks remain a persistent threat today, and offers recommendations for mitigating the problem in the future. The 2021 surge in ransomware activity stems from a change in how criminals launch ransomware attacks. Between 2016 and 2019, cybercriminals shifted away from automated ransomware campaigns that emphasized scale to targeted extortion operations against organizations and established businesses. This adaptation made ransomware more disruptive and more profitable, eventually attracting the attention of well-organized cybercrime gangs. The intensification of the ransomware epidemic from that point until the attack on Colonial Pipeline resulted from the growing adoption of this new extortion model among criminals.  Behind the rise of ransomware

Digital & Tech

  • August 3, 2022. , The Strategist. Innovation in northern Australia is thriving. It’s not clear why, but there’s no doubt that northern Australians are seizing the opportunity to pursue innovative projects that generate economic benefits, contribute to national resilience and respond to defence needs. Industry 4.0 driving sovereign capability in northern Australia
  • August 2, 2022. George Ingram, Brookings. The effectiveness of development co-operation has been front and center of the global development agenda for two decades, notably growing in attention and commitment following the adoption of the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness in 2005. The idea of aid effectiveness is based on the premise of “why provide/why receive” development assistance if it does not advance development.The threat of setback to development from the tsunami of COVID, climate change, refugee crisis, rising food prices and shortages, and the war in Ukraine, makes even more urgent achieving the most out of scarce development resources. Scale & digital public goods: Realizing the effectiveness principles for longer-term development

Health & Digital 

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