martedì, Giugno 25, 2024



August 2, 2022.  and , The Strategist. In January, the UK’s defence chief, Tony Radakin, warned that Russian submarine and underwater activities were directly threatening subsea cable systems. There’s speculation that Russia could cut cables if it further escalates the war in Ukraine. Australia must do more to secure the cables that connect the Indo-Pacific



Arab Countries

  • August 2, 2022. , The Strategist. In a highly polarised world, authoritarianism thrives in the Middle East. According to a credible survey, a majority of citizens across the Arab world are losing faith in democracy as a system of governance to deliver economic stability. It startlingly indicates a reversal of what the popular uprisings of the so-called Arab Spring demanded more than a decade ago. This will be music to the ears of autocratic rulers but a source of profound dismay to democracy promoters around the world. New survey reveals extent of Arab countries’ loss of faith in democracy

ASEAN – Myanmar

  • August 2, 2022. Elaine Pearson, The Interpreter. On my first trip to Myanmar for Human Rights Watch in 2012, I met the activist and writer Kyaw Min Yu (known as Ko Jimmy), who had recently been released from prison. It was a time of hope for Myanmar – the country was starting its experiment of “managed democracy” and hundreds of political prisoners had been released. ASEAN governments need to act on Myanmar

Bosnia Herzegovina 

  • August 1, 2022. Baroness Helić, RUSI. In my first two years as senior adviser to the foreign secretary, 2010 and 2011, I sat through dozens of meetings with Croatian government officials, led by their then foreign minister, Gordan Jandroković, as they prepared to join the EU. Again and again, I heard promises to be a good friend and neighbour: to their new European partners, and to the Western Balkans states – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia – still hoping one day to follow them into the EU. Croatian officials promised to share knowledge and expertise and to promote high standards and democracy throughout the region. I supported them enthusiastically. I saw a democratic Croatia, a member of the EU and NATO, as a stabilising factor in the Balkans. Electoral Reform Proposals in Bosnia and Herzegovina Will Cement Ethnic Divisions


  • August 2, 2022. Francesco Pastore, Jie Chen, East Asia Forum. Deciding whether to pursue academic or vocational education is not easy. Education costs time and money, and is expected to deliver higher economic returns than the price paid to acquire it. This challenge is exacerbated by global uncertainty, job market mismatch and overeducation. In China, many students choose to go to a vocational school because of their low academic performance or their rural-to-urban migration status. China’s vocational education woes


  • August 2, 2022. Gautam Chikermane, ORF. On Autobahn 2, Hanover is less than three hours away from Berlin. But even as Berlin engages in complex energy geoeconomics, Hanover is one step ahead. To reduce the city’s energy bill by 15 percent before the winter sets in, the city is taking measures today that should attune its 110,000 residents to be ready by then. Energy, security, and Europe’s politics of discomfort

Kosovo – Serbia

Russia – Ukraine

  • August 1, 2022. Nataliya Butyrska, ORF. The war in Ukraine is not going according to the scenario Russia planned before the invasion. The Kremlin underestimated the ability of the Ukrainian military, the will of Ukrainians to fight for their freedom, and the solidarity of the transatlantic community. Since the start of the war at all negotiations, Ukraine’s primary demand is the withdrawal of Russian troops, followed by a discussion of the mechanism for the return of Donbas and Crimea (occupied in 2014). The main goal of the Ukrainian government was and remains the restoration of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The Russia-Ukraine conflict: A war of attrition
  • August 1, 2022. Brig Vinod Anand, VIF. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has now in its sixth month and there appears to be a great deal of uncertainty as to when will it end. There is also a view that war has entered a dangerous phase with the conflict becoming a war of attrition. In fact it is a war between NATO and Russia with Ukraine becoming only a proxy. The narrative or rhetoric that is emerging from the West and the US is largely directed against President Putin and strategic defeat of Russia; Americans are especially obsessed with Putin. Of course there is an information war/campaign going on wherein stories of Putin’s illness or Russia’s weakness etc are being spread but what is the extent of credibility is of such stories is not known in fact, they seem unconvincing. However, overall aim of the US/NATO is to push Russia back to its pre-2014 borders. But is that a realistic aim to be achieved? Russia-Ukraine Conflict and International Developments: An Indian Perspective
  • August 1, 2022. Yuri Lapaiev, The Jamestown Foundation. On July 20, Sergey Lavrov, minister of foreign affairs for the Russian Federation, declared that Moscow had new objectives in Ukraine, as it now wants to expand its gains beyond the borders of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” by capturing Kherson, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Lavrov underlined Western military equipment transfer and the alleged need to protect the occupied territories from long-range weapons as main reasons for this shift (TSN, June 20). Arm Ukraine Now: Game Changers in Russo-Ukrainian War
  • August 1, 2022. Pavel K. Baev, The Jamestown Foundation. The tide of the Ukraine war has subtly shifted as the Russian offensive has exhausted itself and the Ukrainian pushback has started to gain momentum. In retrospect, the pitched battle for Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk in late June and early July 2022 could perhaps be recognized as the high-water mark for Russia’s violent intervention aimed at exterminating Ukraine as an independent state. Moscow had to concentrate its best fighting forces and the bulk of its big guns in order to capture the last bit of Luhansk region, and re-directing these depleted capabilities toward a new attack in Donetsk region has proven to be almost too ambitious thus far. Artillery barrages are hitting Bakhmut and Kramatorsk regularly and indiscriminately, but even the deployment of Wagner mercenaries cannot adequately compensate for the shortage of ground troops (Realist, July 26). The battle for Donbas, which became the central theater of the war after the battle for Kyiv was lost by overstretched Russian forces in early April, is deadlocked, and the new focal point is now Kherson. Battle for Kherson and Russia’s Global Downsizing
  • August 1, 2022. Steven Pifer, Brookings. With an ugly war of attrition in Ukraine threatening to drag on for months, some fear possible escalation and suggest Washington should start talking to Moscow about a cease-fire and ending the war, or offer proposals to foster diplomatic opportunities. Russia, Ukraine, and the decision to negotiate
  • August 1, 2022. Kateryna Stepanenko, Layne Philipson, Katherine Lawlor, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Russian forces are reportedly continuing to transfer troops from northern Donetsk Oblast to support defensive positions in southern Ukraine and may be halting the Slovyansk campaign for the time being.The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence (GUR) Representative Vadym Skibitsky stated that Russian forces withdrew airborne tactical groups from Donetsk Oblast and redeployed the units to occupied Kherson Oblast territories two weeks ago. Skibitsky added that Russian forces are also redeploying elements of the Eastern Military District (EMD) operating in Slovyansk to southern Ukraine and are transferring a large number of troops to Crimea to prepare to defend occupied Kherson and/or Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counteroffensives. The UK Defense Ministry also noted that Russian forces likely identified Zaporizhia Oblast as a vulnerable front in need of reinforcement, and the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are regrouping in Zaporizhia Oblast. Social media footage has shown Russian forces moving equipment and personnel to both Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts in recent weeks. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 1



Climate Change & Sustainability

  • August 2, 2022. André Rodrigues De Aquino, World Bank blogs. Indonesia’s Group of 20 presidency – under the banner of “Recover Together, Recover Stronger” — encourages member countries to achieve green economic recovery, and showcases Indonesia’s own vision to achieve green and low-emissions economic development. Indonesia’s green belt – Protecting and restoring the country’s mangroves
  • August 1, 2022. Rodrigo Castillo and Caitlin Purdy, Brookings. The world faces major challenges in responsibly sourcing large quantities of minerals that are critical for the transition to low-carbon energy sources. Consumption of these critical minerals—most notably nickel, copper, lithium, and cobalt—is projected to rise, largely driven by their use in the renewable energy sector. Demand is expected to quadruple by 2040 under the International Energy Agency’s Sustainable Development Scenario, in which global action would limit the global temperature rise to well below 2°C, and it is projected to rise by six times under a net-zero scenario. Many governments, including the United States, European Union members, and China, seem to share the goal of increasing the supply and rate of production of the raw materials needed for the energy transition to address the challenge of global climate change. However, meeting this demand will be difficult—and producing these minerals in strict adherence to robust environmental, social, and governance criteria will be even more so. China’s role in supplying critical minerals for the global energy transition: What could the future hold?  


Defense – Intelligence – Military – Security – Space

  • August 1, 2022. David Isaac, Jewish News Syndicate. Despite repeated refrains by Biden administration officials that negotiations to revive the Iran nuclear deal cannot go on indefinitely, which the U.S. president himself reiterated during the Israel leg of his Middle East trip in mid-July, Washington has refused to set a deadline for ending talks even though they appear to be on life support and are possibly unsalvagable given Tehran’s recent claims that it could easily build a bomb. As Iranian nuclear clock ticks down, Biden administration refuses to set deadline for talks
  • August 1, 2022. Bull Roggio, FDD. Al Qaeda emir Ayman Zawahiri was confirmed killed in a U.S. drone strike in Kabul on Sunday in the first air strike conducted in Afghanistan since U.S. forces completely withdrew from country last year. Zawahiri’s death came less than two weeks after a United Nations report confirmed the Al Qaeda leader to be alive, “communicating freely,” and consulting with the Taliban. U.S. kills Al Qaeda emir Ayman al Zawahiri in drone strike
  • August 2, 2022. Sidharth Kaushal and Kevin Rowlands, RUSI. The sinking of the Russian Slava-class cruiser Moskva in April this year by a Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship cruise missile may well have been a watershed moment. This is not because it illustrated the risks posed to warships by anti-access capabilities – something already well understood and accounted for in naval circles – but rather because it signposted the potential for smaller states to assure their own maritime sovereignty with little or limited support from larger partners. This, of course, is not just a matter of importance to Ukraine and Russia – it is increasingly a factor in the strategic competition underway in the Indo-Pacific and elsewhere. Assured Sovereignty: A Concept for Naval Partnership and Persistent Engagement
  • August 2, 2022. Kabir Taneja, ORF. United States (US) President Joe Biden on 1 August announced that American forces had killed Al Qaeda Chief Ayman al-Zawahiri in a drone strike in Kabul, Afghanistan. Zawahiri, a close confidant of Osama Bin Laden since the 1990s and a co-planner of the 9/11 terror attacks, was reportedly living in an upscale neighbourhood in a house owned by the Haqqani Network. The area where the targeted compound is situated was less than two kilometres from India’s embassy where a ‘technical team’ is now stationed. Death of Ayman Al Zawahiri and the end of Al Qaeda ‘legacy’
  • August 2, 2022. Varuna Shankar, VIF. The emergence of the Indo-Pacific as a new geostrategic space represents the new strategic reality of the 21st century. It is a new domain in India’s foreign policy engagement. India’s role is defined by its geography, interest and potential role in the region against the backdrop of a rapidly evolving geostrategic environment. In 2017, the Trump administration referred to Indo-Pacific as a new theatre of competition. AUKUS, India and the Strategic Dynamics in the Indo-Pacific Region
  • August 1, 2022. Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM (Retd), VIF. Military-Civil Fusion (MCF) is an aggressive national strategy of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The CCP pursues its MCF Development Strategy to fuse its security, economic and social development strategies to build an integrated national strategic system and capabilities. The Party’s leaders see MCF as a vital element of their strategy for China to become a “great modern socialist country” which includes developing a “world-class” most technologically advanced military and becoming a world leader in science and technology (S&T). To achieve this, MCF will allow the seamless flow of knowledge, technology, resources, materials and talent back and forth between the military, defence industrial sectors and academia. Its objectives are to develop and acquire advanced dual-use technology for military purposes and deepen reform of the national defense science and technology industries to strengthen all of the PRC’s instruments of national power. The CCP is executing this strategy through its own research and development efforts and acquiring the world’s cutting-edge technologies, including theft. Military Civil Fusion in China
  • August 2, 2022. Peter Ong. Naval News. The U.S. Navy’s Chief of Naval Operations’ (CNO) Navigation Plan (NAVPLAN) 2022 calls for 373 manned ships and 150 unmanned ships for a total of 523 (estimated) ships by 2045. The NAVPLAN breaks down the classification types and roles of these U.S. Navy vessels into their desired numbers and allotments. U.S. Navy’s new NAVPLAN Calls for 150 Unmanned Ships by 2045
  • August 2, 2022. Adam Lockyer, The Interpreter. Speculation continues to mount that Nancy Pelosi will visit Taiwan during her trip to Asia this week. The schedule of the US Speaker of the House of Representatives, who arrived in Singapore on Monday, includes visits to some of America’s closest allies and security partners in the region, including Malaysia, South Korea and Japan. Will Pelosi’s trip trigger the next Taiwan crisis?
  • August 2, 2022. Syed Fazl-e-Haider, The Interpreter. Killing of al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri in a US drone attack inside Taliban-ruled Afghanistan at the weekend has been billed as a major win by the United States against extremism. US President Joe Biden, who gave the final approval to launch the strike against Zawahri, declared “justice has been delivered, and this terrorist leader is no more” in remarks on Monday (Washington time). Killing the al-Qaeda chief leaves endless questions

Digital & Tech

  • August 2, 2022. Meenakshi Sinha, ORF. After two long years of deliberations and consultations, the Joint Parliamentary Committee on Personal Data Protection Bill 2019 submitted and tabled its report in the 17th Lok Sabha, in December 2021. While the provisions of the report continue to be debated, the submission of the report is a step closer to enacting the first comprehensive data protection law in India. Before the 2019 Bill, personal data protection in India was primarily governed by the Information Technology Act, 2000, which mostly deals with cybercrime and e-commerce. Given that the IT Act, 2000, which was last amended in 2008, has largely been sectoral in its application, the enactment of the PDP Bill 2019 will be a landmark event in India’s digital economy space. Leveraging data privacy by design
  • August 1, 2022. Hosuk Lee-Makiyama, Robin Baker, East Asia Forum. Sanctions and embargoes are precarious policy tools that can lead to inadvertent consequences without careful targeting, planning and coordination. In the absence of focussed application, Washington’s attempts to break China’s 5G dominance may have helped Beijing to strengthen its grip on the sector. Meanwhile, US government agencies are promoting alternative technologies that have opened a back door for sanctioned entities to enter the US market. The paradox of Washington’s 5G sanctions

Global Economy

  • August 1, 2022. John Baffes, Kaltrina Temaj, World Bank blogs. The World Bank’s Beverage Price Index rose by more than 8% in the first half of 2022 compared to the previous six-month period, reflecting mostly strength in Arabica coffee prices. The index is expected to average more than 10% higher in 2022 compared to last year and then ease in 2024. The price outlook could change if there are new pandemic-related lockdowns or a weather-induced deterioration in coffee supplies. Beverage commodity markets: Stable subjected to weather volatility

Global Governance

  • August 1, 2022. Addisu LashitewSorin Krammer, and Jonathan Doh, Brookings. Rising inequality is one of the most pressing societal challenges of our time. According to data from the World Inequality Database, the past two decades saw an increase in the overall income share of the richest 10 percent of the population in all but two of the world’s 10 largest economies (the exceptions are France and the United Kingdom). In the world’s largest economies, the average income share of the richest 10 percent of the population increased from 37.5 percent in 2001 to 41.3 percent in 2021. This is often attributed to rapid technological change and competition from international trade, although the magnitude of change in inequality, as well as its underlying explanations, are potentially different between advanced and emerging economies. Is the risk of crime against businesses greater in more unequal countries?

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