mercoledì, Agosto 10, 2022

L’EUROPA E LA SCELTA ENERGETICA

FOCUS

July 27, 2022. , Project-Syndicate, The Strategist. Russia’s war in Ukraine and the disruption of Russian gas exports to Europe has triggered an energy crunch, with price spikes unlike anything seen since 1973. And the situation will get worse before it gets better. Russian natural-gas flows to Europe are likely to be further curtailed—or even shut off—before the northern winter, and sanctions on oil exports may soon start to bite into energy supplies, too. Europe’s energy choice

AROUND THE WORLD

Azerbaijan – Uzbekistan

  • July 26, 2022. Rusif Huseynov, The Jamestown Foundation. On June 21, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev paid a two-day official visit to Uzbekistan, where he met with his counterpart, Uzbekistani President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. Almost 20 documents, including a declaration on deepening strategic partnership and expanding comprehensive cooperation, were signed by the two delegations during the visit (Uzdaily.uz, June 21). Aliyev’s Visit to Uzbekistan: Expanding Connectivity Between Caucasus and Central Asia

China

  • July 27, 2022. Yu Sheng, East Asia Forum. China has made great efforts to meet increasing domestic food demand over the past four decades. From 1978–2021, China’s real agricultural output grew on average 5.4 per cent a year (over five times the population growth), with increased diversification towards high protein and high-value products. Yet a substantial gap remains between food demand and domestic supply — and is expected to increase. Can aquaculture meet China’s demand for food?

China – Indonesia

  • July 27, 2022. Cao Siqi, Wan Hengyi and Zhang Changyue, Global Times. In a cordial and friendly atmosphere, Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks with Indonesian President Joko Widodo on Tuesday in Beijing, hailing a sound China-Indonesia relationship has positive, far-reaching regional and global impacts and stressing the strong commitment of the two sides to growing their bilateral ties as President Widodo is the first head of state China hosts after the Beijing Olympic Winter Games. China, Indonesia deepen ties, inject stability to region, world in international landscape full of uncertainties

Myanmar

  • July 27, 2022.  and , The Strategist. On Friday, the International Court of Justice announced that it had comprehensively rejected Myanmar’s objections to the continuation of the genocide case brought against it by the Republic of the Gambia over the treatment of Myanmar’s Rohingya ethnic minority. In a small but important victory for international justice, the case can now continue on to a final determination of Myanmar’s responsibility for genocide. International court rejects Myanmar’s bid to halt genocide case

Russia – Iran

  • July 26, 2022. Paul Globe, The Jamestown Foundation. In the run-up to the June 2022 Caspian Summit in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, Moscow had expected that Tehran, animated by the same anti-Western attitudes as Russia, would cooperate closely in the opening of a north-south transportation route between Russia and the Indian Ocean. This plan would allow Russia to effectively circumvent Western sanctions. Yet, as continuing disagreements between Iran and the other Caspian littoral states were highlighted at the meeting, the Kremlin’s hopes for such an approach are a tad premature and may give way to new concerns about Iran’s projection of naval power in the Caspian and the risk that this could lead to new tensions in the Caspian, which the Russian government will find difficult, if not impossible, to resolve. Iran’s Position on Caspian Seriously Impedes Moscow’s Plans to End Sanctions

Russia – Ukraine

  • July 27, 2022. DW. The dispute over millions of tons of grain stuck in Ukraine could finally be over after the country reached an agreement with Russia to resume exports. What does that mean for the world? Five facts on grain and the war in Ukraine
  • July 26, 2022. Vadim Shtepa, The Jamestown Foundation. The Russian full-scale re-invasion against Ukraine, launched in February 2022, was initially explained as the desire for “denazification” of Kyiv. This meant a struggle against the national self-determination of Ukraine, which entered into an insurmountable conflict with Kremlin imperialism. However, in the protracted war, Moscow has started to rely on national movements. In June 2022, the formation of “volunteer national battalions” began in Russian regions, and the authorities intend to send them en masse to the Ukrainian front. Will the Kremlin Send New ‘Savage Divisions’ to Ukraine?
  • July 26, 2022. Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, Katherine Lawlor, Layne Philipson, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Russian-backed proxy leadership continues to enunciate deadlines for the capture of additional Ukrainian territory, likely to support ongoing preparations for referenda on the annexation of these territories to the Russian Federation.Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Deputy Minister of Information Daniil Bezsonov stated on July 25 that the DNR expects to capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast by the end of August. Various Russian and Western sources have previously reported that Russia intends to hold referenda in occupied areas by the first half of September, likely sometime around September 11, which is the unified voting day in the Russian Federation. Proxy leadership and Russian-backed occupation authorities are likely pushing for deadlines for military objectives to support condition setting for expedited annexation objectives, although Russian forces remain unlikely to occupy significant additional territory in Ukraine before the early autumn annexation timeline. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 26

Sri Lanka – India

Tunisia

  • July 26, 2022. Karim MezranEmadeddin BadiAlia BrahimiAlessia Melcangi, and Alissa Pavia, Atlantic Council. On July 25, Tunisian voters approved the president’s proposed new constitution, to replace the 2014 one adopted by the Constitutional Assembly of Tunisia in the wake of the 2011 Arab Spring. While only 27.5 percent of the country cast a vote, exit polls indicated that more than 90 percent of those who cast a ballot did support the changes. The new constitution will allow President Kais Saied to rule by decree until new elections are held in December 2022. Additionally, it will allow the president to directly oversee the government, shifting from a parliamentary to a presidential system. A year after Saied’s decision to sack the prime minister and freeze parliament (which he later dissolved), critics argue that the country’s post-Arab Spring democratic transition is under assault. Those in favor of Saied’s moves claim he is ridding the country of inept and corrupt leaders who have been unable to govern the country and that he will be able to lift Tunisia out of hardship and poverty. We reached out to our experts for their thoughts on the vote and what it means for North Africa writ large.  Experts react: Tunisia’s president cemented his power grab with a referendum vote. What does it mean for North Africa?

Turkey – Kurds

USA

Vietnam

  • July 27, 2022. Thư Nguyễn Hoàng Anh, The Interpreter. Illegal fishing activities conducted by Vietnamese vessels have spiked during the first six months of 2022, with most boats caught encroaching into the waters of IndonesiaThailand and Malaysia. Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) fishing has long been a conundrum for Vietnam. In October 2017, the country was issued with a “yellow card” by the European Commission (EC) to signal a judgement that Vietnam had made inadequate efforts to combat the practice.  What Vietnam can learn from Thailand’s fight against illegal fishing

TOPICS

Climate Change & Sustainability

  • July 27, 2022. Sarah Mewes, Gloria Koepke, Social Europe. For decades, the European vehicle industry was a guarantor of prosperity and economic development. Driving a car became a postwar symbol of progress. But times are changing, with petrol prices reaching records amid Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and climate-change goals requiring a fundamental shift away from high carbon emissions towards an eco-friendly transport system.  Vehicles and just transition—turning the wheel

Cybersecurity

  • July 27, 2022. , Infosecurity. For months, Western leaders have warned about the risk of military conflict in Ukraine spilling over into the rest of the world. Their fears may not yet have been directly realized, but several governments in Latin America have certainly begun to feel the impact. Emboldened cybercrime groups may be redefining acceptable targets, which has implications for governments everywhere. How Ransomware Has Become a Geopolitical Risk for Governments

Defense – Intelligence – Military – Security – Space

  • July 27, 2022. Naval News. The French shipbuilder Socarenam starts the sea trials of the first POM (Patrouilleur d’Outre-Mer) Offshore Patrol Vessel (OPV), the “Auguste Benebig”, on 26 July 2022.  Socarenam begins sea trials of the First POM OPV
  • July 26, 2022. Theresa Hitchens, Breaking Defense. The Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) move to establish a new space division is less of a revolution than an evolution, building on current operations and force structure — with no plans to break out a separate space service mirroring the US Space Force. Canada’s new Space Division: Evolution not revolution
  • July 27, 2022. Bryant Harris, Defense News. When Ukrainian fighters in May surrendered Mauripol’s sprawling steel plant to Russian forces after a months-long siege, the consequences were widespread. Russia not only notched a victory over the 500 Ukrainians fighting to maintain control, but it also knocked out a plant central to Ukraine’s position as a powerhouse in global neon gas exports. Those exports are key to manufacturing the very weapons the United States is sending to Kyiv to defend against Moscow’s invasion. After years of inattention, Congress scrambles to save defense supply chain
  • July 26, 2022. Marcus Weisgerber, Defense One. Defense industry executives have largely attributed the supply-chain woes of recent years to the coronavirus pandemic. But more than a year after the widespread arrival of COVID vaccines, shortages of skilled workers are still delaying weapons deliveries and eating into firms’ profits. Lack of Workers Is Hurting Supply Chains More than COVID, Defense Execs Say
  • July 26, 2022. Jonathan Panikoff, Jesse Salazar, Defense One. After 9/11, the country moved swiftly to secure cockpits and improve airport security. Today, we must act with similar urgency to build up America’s ability to design and produce new microchips—starting by passing the CHIPS Act. Pass the CHIPS Act
  • July 27, 2022. , The Strategist. The Labor government’s election platform contained a commitment to conduct a ‘defence force posture review’. Historically, Australia’s defence posture reviews have mainly considered where Australian Defence Force assets are based. Different stakeholders have inconsistent goals: the Department of Defence wants to consolidate in fewer, larger bases to save money; regional towns want to hang on to what they have; and boosters in the north and west push for more ADF assets to be at the ‘pointy end’ in—no prizes for guessing—the north and west. Australia’s force posture review is a much bigger deal than the name suggests

Digital & Tech

Future of Work

  • July 27, 2022. Rolf Schmucker, Social Europe. During the pandemic, working from home has experienced an unprecedented boom. According to many observers, the associated changes in work organisation and processes will frame the work of the future. ‘Hybrid’ working at different, self-chosen locations—in the office, at home, on the road—is set to become the ‘new normal’ of the working world. Blurring of boundaries in work’s ‘new normal’

Global Economy

  • July 27, 2022.  Arthur Sullivan, DW. The world has been gripped by multiple shocks, from a surge in populism and trade barriers, to a global pandemic and a war in Europe. Globalization appears to be in retreat. Will we see the dawning a new economic era. The globalization backlash: A new world economic order?
  • July 26, 2022. William Reinsch, Grant Reynolds, CSIS. Both the U.S. government and the G7 are considering polices to simultaneously address high oil prices and inflation as well as Russia’s control over energy markets. However, the proposed U.S. crude oil export ban would do little reduce inflation, and instead could have the opposite effect of actually increasing U.S. gasoline prices. The effects of the G7 price cap, alternatively, would depend on a few key actors, namely Russia, China, and India. Ultimately, prices levels may eventually decrease not due to government intervention but rather because of growing fears of an economic downturn. Geopolitics of Oil and Inflation
  • July 26, 2022. Brookings. On Wednesday, July 13, the Global Economy and Development program at the Brookings Institution convened a panel of experts to answer pressing questions on the state of the global economyDavid Malpass, president of the World Bank Group, delivered introductory remarks on the deteriorating global growth outlook, touching on energy and food insecurity, capital misallocation, stagflation, and more. World Bank President David Malpass on the state of the global economy

Health & Digital

Migration

  • July 27, 2022. David McKenzie, World Bank blogs. Moving to a new city or country is costly, scary, and relatively few people do it. Only 3.5 percent of the global population lives in a different country from the one they were born in. Internal migration is harder to compare and aggregate, but UN data suggests approximately 763 million persons live within their own country but outside their region of birth – so in total, only around 1 in 7 of the World’s population have ever migrated even internally. This lack of movement matters a lot at both the personal and societal levels. It means most people’s incomes are determined by local labor market opportunities, and that the development process of reallocation of labor from less productive to more productive areas is limited. Migration and the multiverse

Rare Earths

  • July 27, 2022. Nik Martin, DW. Turkey has announced the world’s second-largest deposit of critical metals needed to build electric cars and wind turbines. But is the grade good enough and can Ankara end China’s dominance? Doubts grow over Turkey′s huge discovery of rare earths

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