domenica, Giugno 16, 2024

WAR IN PROGRESS. Think tank 24 ore

Seguiamo, attraverso le analisi dei think tank, l’evoluzione della situazione in Israele e in Medio Oriente, gli impatti e le possibili conseguenze (non solo a livello regionale)  

(Council on Foreign Relations) – Virtual Media Briefing: the Drone Strike on a U.S. Base in Jordan | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

(Atlantic Council) – Experts react: US retaliation for the deadly attack in Jordan has begun. What’s next? – Atlantic Council

Allison Minor, Kevin Huggard (Brookings) – How the Houthis joined the Israel-Gaza crisis | Brookings

Jon B. Alterman (Center for Strategic & International Studies) – What Will the United States Do after the Drone Strike in Jordan? (csis.org)

Ray Takeyh (Council on Foreign Relations) – Drone Strike Risks Dangerous U.S.-Iran Escalation | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

Jonathan Masters, Will Merrow (Council on Foreign Relations) – U.S. Aid to Israel in Four Charts | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

Patricia M. Kim, Kevin Dong, Mallie Prytherch (Brookings) – Chinese narratives on the Israel-Hamas war | Brookings

Council on Foreign Relations – A Conversation With Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah BouHabib | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

Jeffrey Feltman (Brookings) – Extremist Israeli settlers are nonstate armed actors | Brookings

Tuvia Gering (Atlantic Council) – China’s bid for a new Middle East meets reality – Atlantic Council

Atlantic Council – Will US-UK strikes against the Houthis halt their Red Sea aggression? – Atlantic Council

Yohanan (Johan) Plesner (Israel Democracy Institute) – Can a unified Israel rise from the ashes of the Hamas war? – The Israel Democracy Institute (idi.org.il)

Benjamin Miller (BESA Center) – An Opportunity for the US in the Middle East: 1973 vs. 2023 (besacenter.org)

Meir Elran, Adi Kantor, Anat Shapira (INSS) – After the October 7 Massacre: How Resilient is Israeli Society? | INSS

Galit Cohen, Itamar Eliash, Amit Ashkenazi (INSS) – Food Security: A Challenge in Times of Routine and Emergency | INSS

Tal Avraham, Carmit Valensi (INSS) – October 7 Changed the Rules of the Game in the Syrian Arena as Well | INSS

Meir Elran, Rebecca Meller, Anat Shapira (INSS) – Support in Israel for the Goals of the War against Hamas | INSS

Jon B. Alterman (CSIS) – A Different Two-State Solution (csis.org)

INSS – Swords of Iron: an Overview | INSS

Georgy Poroskoun, Yaron Gamburg (INSS) – Changing Israel’s Policy on Russia and Ukraine | INSS

Tamar Hermann, Or Anabi (Israel Democracy Institute) – Most Israelis Oppose Meeting US Demands to Shift to New Phase of War – The Israel Democracy Institute (idi.org.il)

Gershon Hacohen (BESA Center) – A New Existential War – Part I: Israel’s Perception of the Enemy’s Goals (besacenter.org)

Adam Asad, Yaron Kaplan (The Israel Democracy Institute) – Most Arab Israelis: October 7 Attack Does Not Reflect Islamic, Palestinian, or Arab Society Values – The Israel Democracy Institute (idi.org.il)

Tomer Fadlon, Esteban Klor (INSS) – The Israel-Hamas War: Averting Another Lost Economic Decade | INSS

Ilan Zalayat, Yoel Guzansky (INSS) – As the Region Continues to Heat Up: Saudi Arabia and the Houthis on the Verge of a Peace Agreement | INSS

Emerson T. Brooking, Layla Mashkoor, Jacqueline Malaret (Atlantic Council) – Distortion by design (atlanticcouncil.org)

Hung Tran (Atlantic Council) – What attacks in the Red Sea could mean for the global economy – Atlantic Council

Orna Mizrahi (INSS) – Extending the Tenure of the Commander of Lebanon’s Armed Forces: An Unusual Move with Significance for Israel | INSS

Raz Zimmt (INSS) – Iranian Complacency: Tehran Believes that Israel Does Not Endanger the “Axis of Resistance” | INSS

Ofer Shelah (INSS) – The Ground Operation Alone will not Achieve the War’s Goals: What Should Israel Do? | INSS

Bat Chen Druyan Feldman, Arkady Mil-Man (INSS) – Russia’s “New World Order” and the Israel-Hamas War | INSS

David Aliberti, Daniel Byman (Centre for Strategic & International Studies) – What Does Destroying Hamas Mean? (csis.org)

Elliott Abrams, F. Gregory Gause III, Amr Hamzawy (Council on Foreign Relations) – Israel-Hamas War: Regional Ripple Effects | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

David Siman-Tov, Inbar Noy-Freifeld, Attila Somfalvi, Ella Keinan (INSS) – Civil Public Diplomacy (Hasbara) in the Gaza War: Potential in the Influence Arena | INSS

Reem Cohen (INSS) – A Functional Palestinian Authority: An Essential Israeli Interest | INSS

Galip Dalay (Chatham House) – What does Turkey’s policy on the Gaza war mean for the region? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

Yezid Sayigh, Joost Hiltermann, Marwan Muasher (Carnegie Middle East Center) – Might Israel’s Push Become a Shove? – Carnegie Middle East Center – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (carnegie-mec.org)

Daniel Byman, Mackenzie Holtz (Center for Strategic & International Studies) – Why Hamas Attacked When It Did (csis.org)

Steven Cook, James M. Lindsay (Council on Foreign Relations) – The Renewed Fighting in Gaza, With Steven Cook | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

Netanel Flamer (BESA Center) – Humility Is Required for Improved Intelligence After the October 7 Catastrophe (besacenter.org)

Tammy Caner, Pnina Sharvit Baruch (INSS) – The Statement by the ICC Prosecutor and the Investigation Concerning Israel | INSS

Ofer Shelah, Adi Kantor (INSS) – The Next Steps: Where is Israel Headed in its War against Hamas? | INSS

Orna Mizrahi (INSS) – Hezbollah Returns to Fighting and Seeks to Thwart an Arrangement not in its Favor | INSS

Shelly Culbertson (RAND Corporation) – Displaced in Gaza: The Least-Bad Option | RAND

Nir Reuven (INSS) – Harnessing Israel’s Entrepreneurial and Innovative Power to Overcome Crisis (besacenter.org)

Yohanan Tzoreff (INSS) – Hamas and the Renewed Firing in the Gaza Strip: Anxiety, Without Internalization | INSS

Tamir Hayman (INSS) – Back to Combat: Insights from the INSS Managing Director | INSS

Amit Ashkenazy, Galit Cohen (INSS) – Ensuring the Resilience of Food Supply Chains in Israel During Emergencies | INSS

Jacob Zenn (The Jamestown Foundation) – Brief: Attacks on Israelis Abroad Spike After Start of War in Gaza – Jamestown

Adam Rousselle (The Jamestown Foundation) – Hezbollah’s Balancing Act: Between Hamas’s Ambitions and Strategic Reality – Jamestown

Shibley Telhami, Irina A. Faskianos (Council on Foreign Relations) – Academic Webinar: Public Opinion on Israel and Palestine | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

Pavel K. Baev (The Jamestown Foundation) – Russian Influence Diminished in Remaking the Middle East – Jamestown

Eado Hecht (BESA Center) – The Gaza Terror Offensive – 17-26 November 2023 (besacenter.org)

Morr Link (INSS) – The Gaza War and Israel-Morocco Relations: The Common Interests Need Bolstering | INSS

Ben Scott (Lowy The Interpreter) – Hamas’s position is stronger than you think | Lowy Institute

Paul Scham, Brian Katulis, Anas Iqtait, Fatima Abo Alasrar (Middle East Institute) – Monday Briefing: Israel-Hamas truce extended but prospects for a longer deal remain dim | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)

Shalom Lipner (Atlantic Council) – Why Israel has no imminent plans to wind down its war on Hamas – Atlantic Council

Yuval Eylon (INSS) – Iranian Naval Terrorism is Not an Israeli Problem. It Is an International Problem | INSS

Yoel Guzansky, Ilan Zalayat (INSS) – Indispensable Qatar? | INSS

Meir Elran, Ariel Heimann (INSS) – The Overwhelming Public Support for the War: On Borrowed Time? | INSS

Kobi Michael (INSS) – Here We Go Again: Israel Has Not Yet Learned Hamas’ Language | INSS

Netanel Flamer, Erez Magen (BESA Center) – The “Unclassified Secret” (besacenter.org)

Justin Bassi (ASPI The Strategist) – The path to peace in Gaza lies in defeating Hamas | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

David Shaywitz (American Enterprise Institute) – Rethinking How We Think About Technology | American Enterprise Institute – AEI

Aslı Aydıntaşbaş (Brookings) – The sultan’s ghost: Erdoğan and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict | Brookings

Yehoshua Kalisky (INSS) – Hezbollah’s Burkan Rocket: A New Threat? | INSS

Yohanan Tzoreff (INSS) – Hamas: Between a Lull in the Fighting, a Release of Prisoners, and Survival | INSS

Matan Yanko-Avikasis, Liran Antebi (INSS) – The Iranian-Backed Aerial Threat: More Than Just an Israeli Problem | INSS

Galit Cohen, Gal Shani (INSS) – Uniting Fronts: The War and the Climate Crisis | INSS

Milàn Czerny (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) – Israel and Russia: The End of a Friendship? – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Sanam Vakil, Elham Fakhro, Mirette F. Mabrouk (Chatham House) – Israel-Palestine: Can neighbouring countries offer a way forward? (chathamhouse.org)

Max Boot (Council on Foreign Relations) – Israel Seeing Military Progress Against Hamas Amid Mounting Civilian Toll | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

Tamir Hayman (INSS) – Between Gaza, the North, and the Houthis in Yemen: A Situation Report | INSS

Inbar Noy-Freifeld, Mora Deitch, Rebecca Meller (INSS) – International Situation Report: Countries in Support of and Against Israel | INSS

Daniel E. Mouton (Atlantic Council) – The post-October 7 US strategy in the Middle East is coming into focus – Atlantic Council

Carl Bildt (ASPI The Strategist) – There’s only one way forward in Gaza | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

Nir Reuven (BESA Center) – The Limits on Technological Superiority (besacenter.org)

Udi Dekel (INSS) – The Israel-Hamas War: Israel Needs a Political Idea | INSS

Ilan Zalayat, Yoel Guzansky (INSS) – The Gulf States and the Israel-Hamas War | INSS

Yehoshua Kalisky (INSS) – 30,000 Fighters, Thousands of Rockets, and Suicide Drones: Hamas Capabilities | INSS

Sima Shine (INSS) – Iran’s Growing Drive to Help Hamas | INSS

Jeffrey Feltman, Kevin Huggard (Brookings) – On Hezbollah, Lebanon, and the risk of escalation | Brookings

Angad Singh Brar (Observer Research Foundation) – US-China competition: Impact on multilateral aid to Gaza | ORF (orfonline.org)

Lydia Khalil (Lowy The Interpreter) – The war in Gaza has not destroyed normalisation … for now | Lowy Institute

Shai Shabtai (BESA Center) – words of Iron: The Problem of Hostages and Missing Persons (besacenter.org)

Eado Hecht (BESA Center) – The Gaza Terror Offensive – 13-16 November 2023 (besacenter.org)

Tuvia Gering (INSS) – In the Wake of the War in Israel: Antisemitism in China Reaches New Heights | INSS

Ilan Zalayat (INSS) – More Firing from Yemen to Israel: What Do the Houthis Want? | INSS

Rami Jameel (The Jamestown Foundation) – Hezbollah’s Calculations in the Israel-Hamas War in Gaza – Jamestown

Andrew McGregor (The Jamestown Foundation) – Regime Change in Gaza: Trajectories for a Post-Hamas Future – Jamestown

Elai Rettig (BESA Center) – Fuel Supply in Gaza – Needs and Uses (besacenter.org)

Gallia Lindenstrauss (INSS) – A New Flotilla from Turkey? | INSS

Pnina Sharvit Baruch, Tammy Caner (INSS) – Removing Special Protection: The Legal Justification for the Raid on Shifa Hospital | INSS

Henry Storey (Lowy The Interpreter) – India’s Gaza dilemma | Lowy Institute

Adi Kantor, Orna Mizrahi (INSS) – Israel at War: Will the Northern Border Become a Second Front? | INSS

John Raine (IISS) – The battle for the Middle East’s geopolitics (iiss.org)

Michael Harari (BESA Center) – The War in Gaza and the Implications for Energy in the Eastern Mediterranean (besacenter.org)

Ehud Rosen, Shahar Eilam (INSS) – The War in Gaza and the Domestic Threat in the West | INSS

John Coyne, Afeeya Akhand (ASPI The Strategist) – Despite the pain of the Israel–Hamas war, freedom of speech must be protected | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

Steven A. Cook, David J. Scheffer, Sarah (Holewinski) Yager (Council on Foreign Relations) – Virtual Media Briefing: International Law and the Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

Yoel Guzansky, Ilan Zalayat (INSS) – Normalization and the War in Gaza | INSS

Ephraim Lavie, Mohammed S. Wattad, Meir Elran (INSS) – Jewish-Arab Relations in Israel after Five Weeks of War | INSS

Inbar Noy-Freifeld (INSS) – Along with Mass Demonstrations and Political Changes: British Support for Israel Remains Strong | INSS

Moussa Bourekba, Francis Ghilès (CIDOB) – CIDOB – Las tres consecuencias inevitables del conflicto entre Israel y Gaza

Brian Katulis, Zena Agha, Eran Etzion, Robert S. Ford, Charles Lister (Middle East Institute) – Monday Briefing: America faces a brewing crisis of confidence among key Middle East partners | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)

Karim Mezran (Atlantic Council) – On a knife’s edge: How the conflict in Gaza could tip the scales in North Africa – Atlantic Council

Eado Hecht (BESA Center) – The Gaza Terror Offensive – 7-12 November 2023 (besacenter.org)

Stéphane Cohen (INSS) – Israel at War: Update on the Syrian Front | INSS

Steve Casey (Lowy The Interpreter) – 1947 and now | Lowy Institute

Shaul Bartal (BESA Center) – After the War, Israeli Military Governance Might Be Temporarily Required in Gaza (besacenter.org)

Orna Mizrahi (INSS) – The Fighting with Hezbollah Steps Up – and Israel Will Have to Decide | INSS

Yehoshua Kalisky (INSS) – History in the Skies: The First Operational Use of Arrow 3 | INSS

Eldad Shavit (INSS) – Between the Stance of the US Administration and Talk of a 2023 Nakba | INSS

Mohanad Hage Ali (Carnegie Middle East Center) – For Hezbollah, Timing Is the Essence – Carnegie Middle East Center – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (carnegie-mec.org)

Judy Dempsey (Carnegie Europe) – Judy Asks: Is the Two-State Solution Feasible? – Carnegie Europe – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

James Nixey, Nikolay Kozhanov (Chatham House) – The war in Gaza is aligning Russia against Israel | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

Sanam Vakil (Chatham House) – Iran’s regional strategy is raising the stakes of Hamas-Israel war | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

Shashank Joshi (Chatham House) – Independent Thinking: Will Iran escalate the Hamas–Israel war? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

Ben Scott (Lowy The Interpreter) – Israel-Palestine: It’s not too late for the two-state solution | Lowy Institute

Shibley Telhami (Brookings) – Israel loses much of the support it gained after Hamas’ attack | Brookings

Arkady Mil-Man, Bat Chen Druyan Feldman (INSS) – Russia-Hamas Relations and the Israel-Hamas War | INSS

Ori Sela (INSS) – India, Japan, and Swords of Iron: Asia’s Strategic Importance | INSS

Rebecca Meller, Inbar Noy-Freifeld (INSS) – How the War in Gaza Affected American Public Support for Israel | INSS

Derek Lief, Mora Deitch, Alon Berkman, Jesse R. Weinberg (INSS) – New Figures Reveal: The Number of Demonstrations Against Israel has Soared | INSS

BESA Center – In 2017, BESA Researchers Warned of Hamas Building Itself in Order to Carry Out a Large-Scale Raid Into Israel (besacenter.org)

Yohanan Tzoreff (INSS) – During the War in Gaza, Avoid Igniting the West Bank | INSS

Yoel Guzansky, Sima Shine (INSS) – The War’s Regional Dimension: The Yemen Front | INSS

Davis Siman-Tov, Vera Michlin-Shapir, Ofer Fridman (INSS) – From Hasbara (Public Diplomacy) to Influence in the Gaza War | INSS

Adi Kantor, Raz Zimmt (INSS) – Israel at War: The Iranian Involvement | INSS

Raz Zimmt (Atlantic Council) – The Gaza war raises questions about the future of Iran’s Resistance Axis – Atlantic Council

Michael Young e Somdeep Sen (Carnegie Middle East) – Israel’s Landscapes of Subjugation – Carnegie Middle East Center – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (carnegie-mec.org)

Bonnie S. Glaser e Tuvia Gering (German Marshall Fund) – China’s Response to the Israel-Hamas War | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)

Anna Borshchevskaya (The Washington Institute) – Russia’s Relationship with Hamas and Putin’s Global Calculations | The Washington Institute

Jon B. Alterman (Center for Strategic & International Studies) – Israel Could Lose (csis.org)

Banafsheh Keynoush (Middle East Institute) – Iran and Hamas beyond the borders of the Middle East | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)

Eado Hecht (BESA Center) – The Gaza Terror Offensive – 3–6 November 2023 (besacenter.org)

Randa Slim, Mick Mulroy, Brian Katulis, Khaled Elgindy, Nimrod Goren, Fadi Nicholas Nassar (Middle East Institute) – Monday Briefing: Four takeaways from Hezbollah chief’s November 3 speech | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)

Eldad Shavit (INSS) – The United States Hourglass and the War against Hamas | INSS

Mora Deitch, Derek Lief, Inbar Noy-Freifeld (INSS) – What Do Gazans Think About the Hamas Leadership? Results of a survey conducted one day before the murderous attack | INSS

Derek Lief (INSS) – 94 Cases a Month: Rising Antisemitism on US Campuses | INSS

Sima Shine (INSS) – Iran Increases the Pressure on the US to Stop the War in Gaza | INSS

Moussa Bourekba e Francis Ghilès (Barcelona Centre for International Affairs) – CIDOB – Las tres consecuencias inevitables del conflicto entre Israel y Gaza

Ivo Daalder (Politico) – Anger and grief aren’t a sound basis for effective strategy for Israel – POLITICO

Emanuela-Chiara Gillard (Chatham House) – Humanitarian pauses and ceasefires – what are the differences? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

Raphael “Rafi” Cohen (RAND Corporation) – What Israel’s Ground Offensive Can—and Cannot—Accomplish | RAND

Rodger Shanahan (ASPI The Strategist) – Civilian deaths and proportionality in the Israel–Hamas war | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

Mark Leonard (ASPI The Strategist – Project Syndicate) – The global consequences of the Israel–Hamas war | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

Kobi Michael (INSS) – The Truth behind the Number of Gazan Casualties Reported in the International Media | INSS

Galia Lavi (INSS) – The War in Gaza has Damaged China’s Standing in the Middle East | INSS

Ray Takeyh (Council on Foreign Relations) – How Hezbollah Sees the War in Gaza | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

Mairav Zonszein, Robert Blecher e Azmi Keshawi (Crisis Group) – What Hope for a Ceasefire in Gaza | Crisis Group

Crisis Group – The Gaza War Reverberates Across the Middle East | Crisis Group

Bobo Lo (Lowy The Interpreter) – Gaza and re-imagining international order | Lowy Institute

Yael Ram, Liran Antebi (INSS) – Deep Fake in Swords of Iron: A Battle for Public Opinion | INSS

Orna Mizrahi (INSS) – Nasrallah’s Speech: Nothing new; all options remain open | INSS

Pnina Sharvit Baruch (INSS) – To Win: Be Level-Headed, Not Impulsive | INSS

Gina Abercrombie-Winstanley, Gerald Feierstein, Brian Katulis, Randa Slim e Paul Salem (Middle East Institute) – US Diplomacy and the Israel-Hamas War: Policy Options and Preparing for the “Day After” | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)

Sinem Adar, Hamidreza Azizi (Middle East Institute) – Turkey and Iran: Toward an “Axis of Revisionism” amid the war in Gaza? | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)

Max Boot, Steven A. Cook, Linda Robinson, Ray Takeyh (Council on Foreign Relations) – Virtual Media Briefing: Update on the Israel-Hamas War and the Region | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

RUSI – Episode 3: Hamas Financing | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)

Eado Hecht (BESA Center) – The Gaza Terror Offensive – 29 October – 2 November 2023 (besacenter.org)

Shibley Telhami (Brookings) – Is the Israel-Gaza war changing US public attitudes? | Brookings

John B. Barranco (Atlantic Council) – A Marine’s view: What Israeli ground forces will face in Gaza – Atlantic Council

Mora Deitch, Esteban Klor, Tomer Fadlon (INSS) – A Cost of NIS 1 Billion a Day: War and the Economy | INSS

Ofir Winter e Michael Barak (INSS) – From Moderate Islam to Radical Islam? Al-Azhar Stands with Hamas | INSS

Judy Dempsey (Carnegie Europe) – The Israel-Hamas War Compounds Europe’s Security Challenges – Carnegie Europe – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Mairav Zonszein (Crisis Group) – Israel and Palestine’s Existential War | Crisis Group

Enrica Picco (Crisis Group) – Une Afrique divisée face à la guerre de Gaza? | Crisis Group

Sanjiv Khanna (Vivekananda International Foundation) – The Israel-Palestine Crisis | Vivekananda International Foundation (vifindia.org)

Yaakov Lappin (BESA Center) – Ma’alot (Ascent): The IDF Will Need to Drastically Update Its Multi-Year Program (besacenter.org)

Orna Mizrahi (INSS) – Swords of Iron: The Escalation with Hezbollah Remains Below the Threshold of War | INSS

Eldad Shavit, Eldad Shavit (INSS) – The Potential for Escalation: Attacks on American Forces by Pro-Iranian Militias | INSS

The Jamestown Foundation – Ukraine and the Global South: Putin’s Two-Front War Against the West (Part One) – Jamestown

Yuri Lapaiev (The Jamestown Foundation) – Russia Exploits Israel-Hamas Conflict to Spread Disinformation About War in Ukraine – Jamestown

Paul Globe (The Jamestown Foundation) – Pogroms in North Caucasus Highlight Fragility of Ethnic Relations in Russia – Jamestown

Ruslan Trad (Atlantic Council – DFRLab) – Hacker collectives take sides in the Mideast crisis – DFRLab

Neil Melvin, Tobias Borck e Louise Kettle (RUSI) – Episode 62: Could the Israel–Hamas Conflict Spark a Regional War? | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)

Daniel R DePetris (RUSI) – Israel’s Gaza Problem | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)

Todd C. Helmus, William Marcellino (RAND Corporation) – Lies, Misinformation Play Key Role in Israel-Hamas Fight | RAND

Paul Scham, Bilal Y. Saab, Paul Salem, Nasir Almasri, Brian Katulis, Charles Lister (Middle East Institute) – Monday Briefing: “Second phase” of Israel’s war on Hamas begins | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)

Tim Willasey-Wilsey (RUSI) – Why Restraint in Counterterrorism is So Important, Yet So Hard to Achieve | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)

Josh Lipsky (Atlantic Council) – Israel’s neighbors are in dire financial straits. Here’s what that could mean for the war in Gaza. – Atlantic Council

Galit Truman Zinman (BESA Center) – Is Hamas Equal to ISIS? (besacenter.org)

Udi Dekel (INSS) – A Ray of Light: A Strategic Opportunity that Must Not be Missed | INSS

Attila Somfalvi, David Siman-Tov (INSS) – Fakeland — Part 1 | The End of Israeli Public Diplomacy? – YouTube

Ofir Winter, Dalia Ziada (INSS) – “Hamas is the Curse”: A Fascinating Interview with an Egyptian Researcher | INSS

Louise Kettle FRHistS (RUSI) – Treading a Fine Line: Iran and the Israel–Gaza War | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)

Louis René Beres (BESA Center) – The Gaza War and International Law: An Informed Assessment (besacenter.org)

Yehoshua Kalisky (INSS) – Operational Use of Laser Weapons against the Rocket Threat: A Force Multiplier | INSS

Kobi Michael (INSS) – Time for Sobriety: The Second Phase of the Fighting, Other Necessary Steps – and the Effort to Free the Kidnapped | INSS

Rich Outzen (Atlantic Council) – Erdogan leans on Israel, pushes for post-war role in Gaza  – Atlantic Council

Elham Fakhro (Chatham House) – Gaza: The case for a ceasefire | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

Hayder Al-Shakeri, Tim Eaton e Renad Mansour (Chatham House) – Ignoring the roots of violence in the Israel–Palestine conflict challenges any future peace | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

Lionel Jarvis (Chatham House) – The UN must coordinate field hospitals and hospital ships for Gaza | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

Pradeep Jaidka (Vivekananda International Foundation) – Does Intelligence Always Fail-Invariably? | Vivekananda International Foundation (vifindia.org)

Nandan Unnikrishnan e Aleksei Zakharov (Observer Research Foundation) – The nuances of Russia’s response to the Israel-Hamas War | ORF (orfonline.org)

Atlantic Council – Israel’s ground war in Gaza has started. How will it end? – Atlantic Council

Eado Hecht (BESA Center) – The Gaza Terror Offensive – October 19-28, 2023 (besacenter.org)

Ashka Jhaveri, Johanna Moore, Amin Soltani, and Nicholas Carl (Institute for the Study of War) – Iran Update, October 29, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

Carlo Rebecchi (The Global Eye) – Israele-Hamas e le carte coperte di Teheran – The Global Eye

Eden Kaduri (INSS) – The Golan Heights: Another Front in the Campaign? | INSS

Ilan Zalayat (INSS) – The Saudi Media Speaks with Two Voices – Against Israel and Against Hamas | INSS

Marco Emanuele (The Global Eye) – Ankara’s role in Israel’s war. And the tensions with Washington. Geopolitical chaos grows. In dialogue with Henry J. Barkey (Council on Foreign Relations) – The Global Eye

Farah Pandith (Council on Foreign Relations) – The U.S. Faces a Public Relations Crisis in the Arab and Muslim World | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

Kimberly Donovan, Maia Nikoladze, Ryan Murphy, Yulia Bychkovska (Atlantic Council) – Global Sanctions Dashboard: How Iran evades sanctions and finances terrorist organizations like Hamas – Atlantic Council

Atlantic Council – Experts react: What to know about Israel’s expanding military operations in Gaza – Atlantic Council

Jonathan R. Cohen (RUSI) – Current US Engagement in the Middle East | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)

Mahammad Mammadov (The Jamestown Foundation) – The Israel-Hamas Conflict Reverberates in the South Caucasus – Jamestown

Michal Cotler-Wunsh e Michael Froman (Council on Foreign Relations) – A Conversation With Israeli Special Envoy for Combatting Antisemitism Michal Cotler-Wunsh | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

Valerie Wirtschafter e Fred Dews (Brookings) – Parsing disinformation in the Israel-Hamas conflict | Brookings

Peter Mills, Kathryn Tyson, Annika Ganzeveld, Ashka Jhaveri, Brian Carter, and Nicholas Carl (Institute for the Study of War) – Iran Update, October 26, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

Pnina Sharvit Baruch e Tammy Caner (INSS) – Israel’s Humanitarian Obligations Toward the Civilian Population in Gaza | INSS

Liran Antebi e Matan Yanko-Avikasis (INSS) – Life and Death in the Hands of the Drone: The Small, Cheap Devices Early in the Swords of Iron War | INSS

Gallia Lindenstrauss (INSS) – Erdogan’s Speech: Normalization 2022, the End | INSS

Jessica Davis, Tricia Bacon, Emily Harding, Daniel Byman (Center for Strategic & International Studies) – Experts React: Assessing the Israeli Intelligence and Potential Policy Failure (csis.org)

Henri J. Barkey (Council on Foreign Relations) – Turkey, the United States, and the Israel-Hamas War | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

Jonathan Rynhold, Toby Greene (BESA Center) – URGENT: An Israeli Strategy for a Post-Hamas Gaza (besacenter.org)

Anat Shapira (INSS) – A Summit in Lebanon: Nasrallah’s Continued Brinkmanship | INSS

Adam Sharon, Ofir Winter (INSS) – Jordan and the War in Israel: Between Public Opinion and Diplomacy | INSS

Council on Foreign Relations – The Future of the Israel-Hamas War, With Linda Robinson | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

Itamar Rabinovich (Brookings) – The Biden administration and the Gaza war: The view from Tel Aviv | Brookings

Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti (Brookings) – The Israel and Gaza war: Economic repercussions | Brookings

Arwa Damon (Atlantic Council) – I spent two decades as a CNN correspondent. We journalists need to do a better job reporting the truth. – Atlantic Council

Kirsten Fontenrose (Atlantic Council) – The global consequences of the Israel-Hamas war are just beginning. Here’s what to watch. (atlanticcouncil.org)

Amichai Cohen (The Israel Democracy Institute) – The Hamas Abductions and International Law – The Israel Democracy Institute (idi.org.il)

The Global Eye – Israel-Hamas. Beijing’s position. In dialogue with John Calabrese (Middle East Institute) – The Global Eye

Marzia Giglioli (The Global Eye) – Israele – Hamas. Indagine sulla disinformazione – The Global Eye

John Calabrese (Middle East Institute) – The war in Gaza as a major test of China’s Middle East peace diplomacy | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)

Vincent Carchidi (Middle East Institute) – The October 7 Hamas attack: An Israeli overreliance on technology? | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)

Paul Salem, Nimrod Goren, Khaled Elgindy, Dana El Kurd, Firas Maksad, Brian Katulis (Middle East Institute) – Monday Briefing: Still at square one of a long and dangerous conflict | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)

Max Boot (Council on Foreign Relations) – Israel’s Ground War Against Hamas: What to Know | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

Atlantic Council – Live expertise: The latest insight as the Israel-Hamas war intensifies – Atlantic Council

Amin Soltani, Peter Mills, Kathyrn Tyson, Ashka Jhaveri, Brian Carter, Johanna Moore (Institute for the Study of War) – Iran Update, October 23, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

Chatham House – The Israel-Hamas war: what escalation looks like (chathamhouse.org)

Shay Shabtai (BESA Center) – Swords of Iron: There Is No “Political Hourglass,” But Clear Decisions Are Required (besacenter.org)

Yoel Guzansky (INSS) – Will Disaster Break Loose from the (Far) South? The Yemen Front | INSS

Orna Mizrahi (INSS) – Hezbollah in the War against Israel: What do the Lebanese Think? | INSS

Karen M. Sudkamp (RAND Corporation) – Sparing Civilian Lives in Gaza | RAND

Anna Borshchevskaya (The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) – Russian Policy and Hamas’ Assault: Putin Benefits From Chaos | The Washington Institute

Hari Bansh Jha (Vivekananda International Foundation) – Tragedies with the Nepalese in the Israel-Hamas War | Vivekananda International Foundation (vifindia.org)

Kabir Taneja, Kalpit A Mankikar (Observer Research Foundation) – China’s opportunities and challenges in a crisis-ridden West Asia | ORF (orfonline.org)

Sauradeep Bag (Observer Research Foundation) – Bullets and bitcoin: Financing conflict | ORF (orfonline.org)

Eitan Shamir (BESA Center) – The End of Mowing the Grass: If Israel Wants to Continue to Exist, It Must Uproot Hamas from Gaza (besacenter.org)

Ofir Winter (INSS) – The Rare Demonstrations in Egypt: An Important Signal to Israel | INSS

Pnina Sharvit Baruch (INSS) – The Struggle Against Holocaust Denial: The 2023 Edition | INSS

Brian Carter, Andie Parry, Amin Soltani e Nicholas Carl (Institute for the Study of War) – Iran Update, October 22, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

Maurizio Zandri (The Global Eye) L’attacco ad Israele, Hamas e la crisi in Medio Oriente (seconda parte) – The Global Eye

Maurizio Zandri (The Global Eye) – L’attacco ad Israele, Hamas e la crisi in Medio Oriente (prima parte) – The Global Eye

Chatham House – Independent Thinking: Is Gaza on the brink of disaster? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

Crisis Group – War in Gaza: To What End and At What Cost? | Crisis Group

Johanna Moore, Ashka Jhaveri, Annika Ganzeveld, Kathryn Tyson, Amin Soltani and Brian Carter (Institute for the Study of War) – Iran Update, October 20, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

Marco Emanuele (The Global Eye) – Israeliani e palestinesi: capovolgere il destino all’odio. La lezione di Edgar Morin – Israelis and Palestinians: reversing destiny to hate. The lesson of Edgar Morin – The Global Eye

Abdul Rahman Yaacob (Lowy The Interpreter) – History and domestic dynamics: How ASEAN members see the Hamas-Israeli conflict | Lowy Institute

David J. Scheffer (Council on Foreign Relations) – What International Law Has to Say About the Israel-Hamas War | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

Jeffrey Feltman e Adrianna Pita (Brookings) – Biden in Israel and US diplomacy on the Israel-Gaza crisis | Brookings

David Daoud (Atlantic Council) – Israel misread Iran’s way of war. A proper understanding could help predict Hezbollah’s next moves. – Atlantic Council

Atlantic Council – Experts react to Biden’s ‘inflection point’ address on Ukraine and Israel – Atlantic Council

Ashka Jhaveri, Peter Mills, Andie Parry, Annika Ganzeveld, Amin Soltani, Brian Carter, and Nicholas Carl (Institute for the Study of War) – Iran Update, October 19, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

Eado Hecht (BESA Center) – The Gaza Terror Offensive – October 15-18 ,2023 (besacenter.org)

Galit Truman Zinman (BESA Center) – Hamas Is a Jihadist Organization Committed to Israel’s Total Destruction (besacenter.org)

Yehoshua Kalisky (INSS) – Precision Missiles, UAVs, and Tens of Thousands of Fighters: Hezbollah’s Order of Battle | INSS

Eldad Shavit, Shimon Stein, Chuck Freilich (INSS) – Biden’s Visit and the Gaza War: United States Interests and Ramifications for Israel | INSS

Grigory Ioffe (The Jamestown Foundation) – Ideological Differences on the Israel-Hamas Conflict Divide Belarusians – Jamestown

Ksenia Kirillova (The Jamestown Foundation) – Russian Propaganda Efforts to Capitalize on Fighting in Gaza May Backfire – Jamestown

William F. Wechsler (Atlantic Council) – Dispatch from Abu Dhabi: Do the Israelis know about the Basus War? – Atlantic Council

Atlantic Council – Experts react: What did Biden achieve in his visit to Israel? – Atlantic Council

Kobi Michael (INSS) – The Explosion at the Hospital in Gaza: Another Wake-Up Call in the Cognitive War | INSS

Attila Somfalvi (INSS) – The Explosion at the Hospital Proves: Israel Lags in Public Diplomacy and the Cognitive War | INSS

Pnina Sharvit Baruch, Tammy Caner (INSS) – The Legal Aspects of Hamas’s Murderous Attack on Israel | INSS

Ashka Jhaveri, Andie Parry, Johanna Moore, Brian Carter, Amin Soltani (Institute for the Study of War) – Iran Update, October 18, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

Marco Emanuele (The Global Eye) – La risposta militare di Israele all’attacco di Hamas e la lezione degli errori americani – The Global Eye

Bilal Y. Saab (Chatham House) – Israel has the capacity to significantly damage Hamas with a ground offensive. But politics will restrain it throughout | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

Leslie Vinjamuri (Chatham House) – President Biden’s Middle East visit reveals the challenges for US diplomacy – and the cost of American withdrawal from the region | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

Nur Arafeh (Carnegie Middle East Center) – A Second Nakba? – Carnegie Middle East Center – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (carnegie-mec.org)

Jon B. Alterman (Center for Strategic & International Studies) – President Biden Heads to Israel (csis.org)

Christina Bouri e Diana Roy (Council on Foreign Relations) – The Israel-Hamas War: The Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

Shaul Bartal (BESA Center) – The Islamic State of Hamas (besacenter.org)

Johanna Moore, Ashka Jhaveri, Annika Ganzeveld, Andie Parry, and Nicholas Carl (Institute for the Study of War) – Israel–Hamas War (Iran Update) | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

Clive Williams (ASPI The Strategist) – Gaza tunnels give Hamas an advantage in fight against Israel | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

Pavel K. Baev (The Jamestown Foundation) – Moscow Seeks to Benefit From Fighting in Gaza – Jamestown

Steven A. Cook (Council on Foreign Relations) – Will Egypt Play a Role in Easing the Gaza War? | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

Steven A. Cook, Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen, Guy Nattiv (Council on Foreign Relations) – Screening and Discussion of “Golda” | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

Atlantic Council – Live expertise: The latest insight as Israel prepares for a ground invasion of Gaza – Atlantic Council

David Levy (BESA Center) – Hamas Leadership and America’s Extradition Option (besacenter.org)

Elai Rettig (BESA Center) – Cutting the Electricity Supply to Gaza – Consequences and Implications (besacenter.org)

Eado Hecht (BESA Center) – The Gaza Terror Offensive – October 12-14 ,2023 (besacenter.org)

Pnina Sharvit Baruch (INSS) – The War with Hamas: Legal Basics | INSS

Orna Mizrahi (INSS) – Hezbollah Escalates the Situation on the Lebanese Border. The Conflict is Still Below the Threshold of War | INSS

Arkady Mil-Man (INSS) – From Russia – With Hate? | INSS

Johanna Moore, Ashka Jhaveri, Annika Ganzeveld, Andie Parry, and Nicholas Carl (Institute for the Study of War) – Iran Update, October 16, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

The Global Eye – Israele-Hamas. Washington dovrebbe convincere Israele a evitare l’intervento di terra a Gaza – The Global Eye

Carlo Rebecchi (The Global Eye) – Israele-Hamas. L’operazione a Gaza durerà a lungo. Cosa significa ‘pace’ ? – Israel-Hamas. The operation in Gaza will last a long time. What does ‘peace’ mean? – The Global Eye

James Jeffrey (Lawfare) – What 50 Years of Wars in the Middle East Tell Us about Gaza | Lawfare (lawfaremedia.org)

Raphael S. Cohen, David E. Johnson, David E. Thaler, Brenna Allen, Elizabeth M. Bartels, James Cahill, Shira Efron (RAND Corporation) – Lessons from Israel’s Wars in Gaza | RAND

Rodger Shanahan (ASPI The Strategist) – Israel may find Gaza easy to enter, but it will be hard to leave | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

Johanna Moore, Andie Parry, and Nicholas Carl (Institute for the Study of War) – Iran Update, October 15, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

Shay Shabtai (INSS) – Iron Swords II: ‘It is a New Regional Order, Stupid’, and it must include the Demilitarization of Political Islam (besacenter.org)

Shay Shabtai (INSS) – Iron Swords I: A Fundamental Miscalculation on Both Sides That Must Lead to the Defeat of Hamas (besacenter.org)

INSS – Swords of Iron: an Overview | INSS

Sima Shine, Raz Zimmt (INSS) – The Dilemma of the Iranian Octopus: The Considerations in Tehran Regarding Expansion of the Fighting | INSS

Kobi Michael (INSS) – Israel: The Last Barrier versus a Barbaric Attack on the Free World | INSS

Ashka Jhaveri, Annika Ganzeveld, and Nicholas Carl (Institute for the Study of War) – Iran Update, October 14, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

The Global Eye – Israele a Gaza. La più grande difficoltà ? La geografia della Striscia – The Global Eye

Ariel (Eli) Levite (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) – A View From Israel – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Manish Vaid (Observer Research Foundation) – Hamas-Israel war’s global energy impact will depend on whether the conflict theatre widens | ORF (orfonline.org)

Aaron Cohen-Gold (RUSI) – The Hamas Assault on Israel Changes Everything | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)

Chatham House – Independent Thinking: Will the war between Israel and Hamas escalate? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

Navdeep Suri (Observer Research Foundation) – The rollercoaster saga of Israel-Hamas relations | ORF (orfonline.org)

Khaled Elgindy (Middle East Institute) – Dehumanization, lack of empathy for Palestinians is alarming—and dangerous | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)

Paul Scham (Middle East Institute) – As Israel-Hamas war begins, it’s not too late to shape this historic inflection point | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)

Middle East Institute – The Israel-Hamas War: Risks of Escalation and Scenarios for Resolution | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)

Center for Strategic & International Studies – Press Briefing: Latest Insights on Israel-Hamas War (csis.org)

GRC, SWP, SIIS, IAI (Council of Councils) – Global Perspectives on the Hamas Attacks on Israel | Council of Councils (cfr.org)

Brookings – The Israel-Gaza crisis | Brookings

Jonathan Panikoff (Atlantic Council) – It doesn’t matter whether Iran planned the Hamas attack—Tehran is still to blame – Atlantic Council

Ashka Jhaveri, Amin Soltani, and Nicholas Carl (Institute for the Study of War) – Iran Update, October 13, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

The Global Eye – La distrazione delle grandi potenze e la sfida del Medio Oriente – The Global Eye

The Global Eye – L’attacco di Hamas e le divisioni nel mondo arabo. Per Washington è fondamentale lavorare per evitare l’allargamento del conflitto – The Global Eye

Crisis Group (Mairav Zonszein) – How Netanyahu Undermined Israel’s Security | Crisis Group

INSS (Orna Mizrahi) – The Escalation with Hezbollah: What Does it Signify? | INSS

INSS (Kobi Michael) – Reconstruct the Gaza Envelope – Now | INSS

Center for Strategic & International Studies (Mark F. Cancian) – Can the United States Equip Israel while Simultaneously Equipping Ukraine and Taiwan? (csis.org)

Atlantic Council (Fred Kempe) – Israel, Ukraine, and how Biden should connect the dots – Atlantic Council

Atlantic Council (Dina Sadek, Layla Mashkoor) – In Israel-Hamas conflict, social media become tools of propaganda and disinformation – DFRLab

Institute for the Study of War (Andie Parry, Ashka Jhaveri, Johanna Moore, Annika Ganzeveld, Amin Soltani, and Nicholas Carl) – Iran Update, October 12, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

The Global Eye – Israele-Hamas e le reazioni dall’America Latina. Riprendendo Frida Ghitis su World Politics Review – The Global Eye

Cleary Waldo, Gabriel Epstein, Sydney Hilbush (The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) – International Reactions to the Hamas Attack on Israel | The Washington Institute

Andrew J. Tabler (The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) – Syria and the Hamas Attack: Another Potential Iran-Backed Front? | The Washington Institute

The Global Eye – Secondo Dennis Ross (Foreign Affairs), il 7 ottobre di Israele è come l’11 settembre per Washington – The Global Eye

The Global Eye – Hamas: o la vittoria o il martirio, scrive Matthew Levitt (Foreign Affairs) – The Global Eye

The Global Eye – Secondo Suzanne Maloney, Foreign Affairs, il Medio Oriente deve tornare in cima all’agenda dell’amministrazione USA – The Global Eye

Lydia Khalil (Lowy The Interpreter) – Israel–Palestine conflict once more the overriding issue of regional security | Lowy Institute

Emily Harding (Center for Strategic & International Studies) – How Could Israeli Intelligence Miss the Hamas Invasion Plans? (csis.org)

Jon B. Alterman (Center for Strategic & International Studies) – Hamas and Israel: The Current Situation and Looking Ahead (csis.org)

Elliott Abrams, Steven Cook, James M. Lindsay (Council on Foreign Relations) – The Israel-Hamas War, With Elliott Abrams and Steven Cook | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

Andie Parry, Ashka Jhaveri, Johanna Moore, Annika Ganzeveld, and Amin Soltani (Institute for the Study of War) – Iran Update, October 11, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

Daniel Byman (Lawfare) – An Intelligence Failure in Israel, but What Kind? | Lawfare (lawfaremedia.org)

The Global Eye – Israele-Hamas. L’intelligence di Israele alla prova della complessità. Dall’analisi di Amy Zegart (Foreign Affairs)

The Global Eye – Israele-Hamas. Attenzione ai rischi di destabilizzazione dell’Egitto. Lo scrive Alexander Clarkson (World Politics Review)

Sir John Chipman KCMG, Laith Alajlouni, Hasan Alhasan, Emile Hokayem, John Raine, Rym Montaz, Dana H. Allin, Nigel Gould-Davies (IISS) – IISS experts assess the Hamas–Israel war and its international implications

Ben Barry, Tom Beckett, Fabian Hinz (IISS) – The Hamas attack and Israeli military options (iiss.org)

Eldad Shavit (INSS) – Biden in a Historic Speech: Significance and Implications | INSS

Yoel Guzansky (INSS) – The War in Israel in the Eyes of Moderate Arab States | INSS

INSS – Where Do We Go From Here? | INSS

Marzia Giglioli (The Global Eye) – Israele-Hamas: guerra e social, insufficienti i filtri sull’istigazione alla violenza – Israel-Hamas: war and social media, insufficient filters on incitement to violence – The Global Eye

Kabir Taneja (Observer Research Foundation) – Israel-Hamas War: A challenge for the ‘new’ Middle East | ORF (orfonline.org)

Kiel Institute for the World Economy – Moritz Schularick | Kiel Institute: Terror in Israel: Economic consequences depend on oil price development | Kiel Institute (ifw-kiel.de)

Richard N. Haas (Project Syndicate – ASPI The Strategist) – An Israeli dilemma | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

Alexander Palmer, Daniel Byman (Center for Strategic & International Studies) – What’s Next for Hamas and Israel? (csis.org)

Manjari Chatterjee Miller (Council on Foreign Relations) – Modi’s Statement on the Israel Crisis Demonstrates a Transformed India-Israel Bilateral Relationship | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

Suzanne Maloney, Natan Sachs, Shibley Telhami, Molly E. Reynolds, Michael E. O’Hanlon, Adrianna Pita (Brookings) – War in Israel and Gaza | Brookings

Nicholas Blanford (Atlantic Council) – What will Hezbollah do next? Here’s how the Hamas-Israel conflict could engulf the region. – Atlantic Council

Atlantic Council – Live expertise: Get the latest insight on the Israel-Hamas war – Atlantic Council

Cambridge Middle East and North Africa Forum (MENAF) Weekly Strategic Brief (october 10, 2023): Hamas carries out unprecedented attack against Israel, escalating tensions to war; far-reaching consequences for Israeli security policy, regional foreign policy, and domestic politics—In the morning hours of 7th October, the Gaza Strip-based Palestinian terrorist group, Hamas, carried out an unprecedented and surprise attack on Israel, bombing observation towers and weapons systems along the Israel-Gaza Strip border with the use of drones, launching c. 2,200 missiles and multiple armed paragliders into Israel, tearing openings in the border fence and crossing through them as well as through border checkpoints, and deploying motorboats on the Mediterranean Sea.
Some 1,000 Hamas fighters infiltrated army bases and more than 22 towns in the areas surrounding the Gaza Strip, including Ashkelon, Sderot, Be’eri, Kerem Shalom and Ofakim, the latter some 30 kilometres (18 miles) from the border. More than 900 Israelis were killed, including some 70 soldiers, while 2,500 more were injured and an estimated 150 people—both civilians and soldiers—were taken hostage into the Gaza Strip. On the same day, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared a war on Hamas and announced the widespread mobilisation of active personnel as well as around 300,000 reservists of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF). Israel launched airstrikes on Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip overnight while its ground forces secured the areas affected by the incursion by 9th October. More than 500 people died and nearly 3,000 have been injured in the Gaza Strip since. Simultaneously, mortars were fired and four Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) terrorists breached the fence along the Lebanon-Israel border, who the IDF swiftly stopped before shelling Hezbollah military posts in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah denied its involvement in the attack. On 9th October, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant announced a ‘complete siege’ on the Gaza Strip, cutting off electricity, fuel and food.
In a joint statement on 9th October, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy expressed their support for Israel to defend itself. On the same day U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin announced that the US was moving an aircraft carrier and several warships closer to Israel in the east Mediterranean.

  1. Hamas’ highly coordinated attack took Israel’s security establishment by complete surprise, resulting in the deadliest incident and the first battles fought on Israeli soil since the 1973 Yom Kippur War, rendering it one of the most serious intelligence and tactical failures in the country’s history. Israel has perceived Hamas to lack the appetite for broader military confrontation, especially since its position of neutrality during Israel’s Operation Shield and Arrow against PIJ militants in the Gaza Strip in May this year. While Israel is likely to carry out its largest offensive operation in decades, the presence of a high number of hostages in the Gaza Strip presents important limits on its usual tactics of air raids, increasing the probability of some form of ground operation over the coming days.
  2. As Israel’s counteroffensive against the Gaza Strip intensifies, risks of PIJ and Hezbollah militants triggering a two-front war from Lebanon, and Palestinian terrorist attacks taking place in the West Bank and in larger Israeli cities will grow. The repeated meetings of senior Hamas, Hezbollah and PIJ leaders—including Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah and PIJ Secretary General Ziyad al-Nakhalah—in Beirut since April, in addition to their separate meetings with Ismail Qaani, Commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, point to a grander anti-Israel scheme at play. Following the earthquake that struck in February, Iran shipped weapons and ammunition to Syria in the guise of aid, potentially reaching Hezbollah and prompting Israeli airstrikes targeting and destroying a Hezbollah military depot in the city of Homs near the Lebanese border in April. This is in addition to Iran’s known and years-long military, logistical and financial support to the PIJ and Hamas too. The US’s swift decision to move its Navy ships despite President Joe Biden’s strained relationship with Netanyahu signals the administration’s concern about the Hamas-Israel war drawing in multiple parties and escalating to a regionwide conflict.
  3. Israel’s counterattack in the Gaza Strip will inevitably fuel animosity among Arab populations across the Middle East and prompt the further public distancing of their leaders, harming not only Israel’s existing peaceful relations with Arab states but also the developing relationship with Saudi Arabia, which is effectively halted as a direct result of the war in our assessment. The potential of Saudi-Israeli normalisation and recent news of Israeli negotiations with the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority exacerbated Iranian, Hamas, PIJ and Hezbollah threat perceptions, and were in fact among the primary factors that triggered Hamas’ attack. At a Palestinian summit held in Cairo on 30th July, Hamas leader Haniyeh stressed the unique opportunity that Israel’s internal political divisions offered the resistance movement, highlighting the role domestic Israeli politics played in the matter too.
  4. It is still early to assess how the Netanyahu government will fare once the most immediate threats to Israel’s security have been mitigated. While the war will undeniably unite the country’s population and divert attention away from months-long public protests and political discord associated with the judicial reform plans, the intelligence fiasco and consequent failure to prevent or pre-empt the attack could alone threaten its longevity. The government’s political balance sheet will be influenced by a number of variables over the coming weeks and potentially months, including the extent and means of Israel’s retaliatory actions, the fate of hostages, Hamas’ resilience, Hezbollah and other Iran-backed militant groups’ decision whether to intervene, as well as the pro- and anti-Israel camps’ means and willingness to support either of the conflicting parties.

Yohanan Tzoreff (INSS) – The West Bank Sympathizes with Hamas – But So Far Has Not Answered its Calls | INSS

Assaf Shapira (The Israel Democracy Institute) – As ‘Swords of Iron’ Continues – Is An Emergency Government in Israel in the Cards? – The Israel Democracy Institute (idi.org.il)

Rodger Shanahan (ASPI The Strategist) – Without evidence, it’s unwise to assume Iran is Hamas’s puppeteer | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

Shlomo Ben-Ami (Project Syndicate – ASPI The Strategist) – Hubris meets nemesis in Israel | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

Crisis Group – A Second October War in Israel-Palestine | Crisis Group

Julien Barnes-Dacey e Hugh Lovatt (European Council on Foreign Relations) – How Europeans should respond to the Hamas offensive against Israel | ECFR

Nathan J. Brown (Carnegie Middle East Center) – Hamas Strikes Out Into the Unknown – Carnegie Middle East Center – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (carnegie-mec.org)

Max Boot, Steven A. Cook, Linda Robinson, Ray Takeyh (Council on Foreign Relations) – The Conflict in the Middle East | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

Ashka Jhaveri, Annika Ganzeveld, Johanna Moore (Institute for The Study of War) – Iran Update, October 9, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

Eado Hecht (Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies) – The Gaza Terror Offensive – October 7-8, 2023 (besacenter.org)

Meir Elran (INSS) – Societal Resilience: The Key to Winning the War | INSS

Orna Mizrahi (INSS) – The War in the North Will Not Resemble the War in the South | INSS

Ofir Winter (INSS) – The Attack in Alexandria Was Not Inspired Only by Gaza | INSS

Kabir Taneja (Observer Research Foundation) – Hamas attack against Israel seeks to counter-shape regional order in West Asia | ORF (orfonline.org)

Harsh V. Pant (Observer Research Foundation) – Israel-Gaza War-A Major Shock And A Few Lessons | ORF (orfonline.org)

Tobias Borck (RUSI) – Israel and the Palestinians: A New Kind of Conflict | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)

Yossi Mekelberg (Chatham House) – The Hamas attack is a dark day for Israel’s intelligence services | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

Bronwen Maddox (Chatham House) – The assault by Hamas will unite Israel and its allies | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

Kenneth M. Pollack (American Enterprise Institute) – Hamas’ Unwanted Anniversary Present: Some Worrisome Changes since Israel’s 1973 War | American Enterprise Institute – AEI

Zhao Yusha (Global Times) – Hamas attack ‘harsh reminder’ wave of reconciliation in Middle East won’t last with Palestine-Israel conflict unsolved – Global Times

Johanna Moore, Ashka Jhaveri (Institute for the Study of War) – Iran Update, October 8, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

Ray Takeyh (Council on Foreign Relations) – Iran’s Support Against Israel Bolsters Hamas | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

William F. Wechsler (Atlantic Council) – Dispatch from Jerusalem: How does this end? – Atlantic Council

Daniel Flitton (Lowy The Interpreter) – Israel-Hamas conflict: Key questions for a “long and difficult war” | Lowy Institute

Alex Bristow (ASPI The Strategist) – Australian statecraft will be tested as Israel confronts Hamas’s terror | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

Yohanan Tzoreff, Kobi Michael, Orna Mizrahi (INSS), ‘Israel at War: Objectives and possible scenarios’ – Podcasts Archive | INSS

Steven A. Cook, Martin S. Indyk, Ray Takeyh (Council on Foreign Relations) – Virtual Media Briefing: Hamas Attacks on Israel | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

Richard Fontaine, Jonathan Lord (Center for a New American Security) – CNAS Responds: Israel Under Attack | Center for a New American Security (en-US)

Middle East Institute experts – Defense Rapid Reaction: Hamas attack on Israel | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)

Atlantic Council experts – Experts react: Israel is ‘at war’ after Hamas militants launch major assault – Atlantic Council

William F. Wechsler (Atlantic Council) – Dispatch from Tel Aviv: A new kind of conflict has begun – Atlantic Council

Kobi Michael (INSS) – Israel at War: The Meaning of the Surprise and the Goals for the Future | INSS

 

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